It’s Going to Take Something “Historic” and “Crazy” for the Bears Not to Draft a QB No. 1 Overall

Super Bowl LVIII is TODAY.

And yet, the biggest subplot of Super Bowl week had nothing to do with the Kansas City Chiefs or San Francisco 49ers — and everything to do with the Chicago Bears.

Is that an overstatement? Perhaps. But maybe it isn’t. Especially when NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport than what the Bears do with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft:

There is so much to unpack in the 1 minute and 15 seconds of video above. Let’s do it.

Signs are pointing to the Chicago Bears drafting Caleb Williams in April

So even as we’re on the precipice of the biggest football game of the year, there might not be a bigger football story than how the Bears are in a position to control the offseason — again.

Let me be clear from the top. The Bears haven’t made a decision yet. There has been no puff of white smoke from Halas Hall. General Manager Ryan Poles hasn’t sent out secret codes for us to decipher. And I do not have access to a crystal ball that can see into the future. But based on what sourced NFL reporters are saying publicly, the general consensus is that the Chicago Bears will use the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on USC quarterback Caleb Williams.

Here are Rap Sheet’s words:

Here is my understanding after talking to various sources involved in the situation. It would take a historic haul — a historic haul — something crazy for the 𒁏Bears to move off of the No. 1 overall selection. That bit of knowledge contains wide-ranging ramifications. First of all, that is an indication that the Bears, absent some sort of wild draft compensation with someone trying to move up for Caleb Williams, that is a sign that they will likely take a quarterback No. 1.

By no means is this earth-shattering news. After all, we have been preparing for this possibility since October. But when one of the league’s biggest news-breakers (such as Rapoport) shares an anecdote like the one above, it is worth re-sharing and discussing. Especially since it comes shortly after Rap Sheet’s NFL Network teammate Tom Pelissero recently offered up that the Bears’ offseason actions “appeared geared toward bringing in Caleb Williams.” And so long as he doesn’t pull a John Elway (which doesn’t sound like something that is in the cards), then it sure sounds like Williams will be No. 1 pick in 𒈔the 2024 NFL Draft.

How good is Caleb Williams? Well, a quote via  at the Super Bowl has mﷺy attention.

“I’m not sure I’ve talked to one single scout or executive who doesn’t think Chicago should keep the pick and draft Caleb Williams at No. 1,” Fowler writes. “As one high-ranking personnel exec said “There’s Caleb and then there’s a pretty big gap.”

What does this mean for Justin Fields?

Every move the Bears make this offseason is 💧going to have some significant fallout to follow. And if the team *DOES* decide on drafting q🏅uarterback Caleb Williams, it would mean the end of the Justin Fields era in Chicago.

In theory, the Bears could keep Fields and draft a quarterback. Perhaps it could look like an Alex Smith-Patrick Mahomes situation. But not everything works in theory and in practice. It would be chaotic bringing Caleb Williams into an environment where he competes with Justin Fields for the QB1 gig. work in an ideal world where both players had an equal amount of time for practice reps. But the NFL’s limitations on offseason practices make this not feasible. Hence, we find ourselves in a place looking at the beginning of the end of Fields’ time in Chicago.

More on that from Ian Rapoport, who sees the Bears’ ask for a historic trade haul as a sign that the team will stick with the No. 1 pick and part ways with Fields:

“It also is an indication that they will likely move on from Justin Fields. If that is the case, they should be able to get prime draft pick compensation for their starter for the last three years. Fields impressed the Bears. They really like everything he has done on the field, in the locker room, in the organization. It’s just rare opportunity to make the No. 1 overall selection and take a franchise quarterback. But no doubt, whatever the Bears do is gonna end up being fascinating.”

Rapoport’s words appear to track with what GM Ryan Poles said back in January. If you’ll recall, Poles did *NOT* use his season-ending press conference to put a sign out front of Halas Hall and suggest the pick was up for auction. However, he also didn’t say the idea of trading the pick was off-limits. Poles also gave Justin Fields a vote of confidence, while also leaving himself wiggle room if he decided to change lanes this offseason.

There are two quotes from Poles in January that I want folks to keep in mind as this💎 offseason roꦜlls along:

I simply can’t shake the resemblance of what Poles said in January to what Rapoport is reporting at the start of February. Rap Sheet’s words read like Poles’ words, but if Poles had the discretion of a filter and a team of copy editors at his disposal.

The NFL Draft is 75 days away. So we have so much time before any of this becomes officially official. But all of the NFL’s 32 teams will be in offseason mode starting on Monday — which means the smoke will clear soon enough.