The Caleb Williams Tapes: Oregon (2023)

We’re 66 days from the 2024 NFL Draft. Save for a couple of weeks next month when we have free agency as a distraction, it’s officially draft season. So, we’re starting a new series here at BN called “The Caleb Williams Tapes” in which I will watch Williams’ games against ranked teams (because who cares what he can do against San Jose State?) and share my observations here to help us understand what the top quarterback of the year can (and can’t) do.

Here’s how this will work:

I will share a screenshot of my game notes, with details on every play including the quarter, time, down and distance, grades, and commentary.

I will share a bunch of clips that I feel illustrate something of importance, whether it be good, bad, or indifferent.

I can not share every play, even though I would like to. Sharing 45-50 embedded videos would slow the responsiveness of the story down to the point where it would be unbearable to try and consume.

The marks: A double-plus indicates a special throw or play by the quarterback, including drops or mistakes by the wide receiver or other results out of the control of the quarterback. A single plus will generally denote a positive play, good decision, or good throw by the quarterback. No mark indicates a wash or neutral result, often times being a play that’s not fairly reflective of the quarterback’s performance one way or another. A single minus reflects a poor decision, poor play, or poor throw by the quarterback. Remember, context is important, so pay attention to the notes. A double minus is a horrible throw or decision that resulted in a turnover that was the quarterback’s fault, or a turnover worthy play that was the quarterback’s fault.

This isn’t meant to “grade” Williams, but rather to provide some clarity and information. There is much discussion about Williams’ success, or lack of it, against ranked opponents this season. Let’s treat this as a fact-finding project. You can examine the findings and form your own interpretation.

Let’s get into it.

Caleb Williams vs. Oregon (November 11, 2023)

I watched this game twice recently and Oregon’s pass rush was relentless. USC’s offensive line was really weak. Some of the breakdowns in protection are so quick, and so lopsided in numbers, that I laughed out loud while watching this tape. The fact that Williams was sacked only three times is a testament to his escapability as a quarterback.

Oregon beat USC 36-27 in Eugene on this night, effectively ending USC’s hopes for a PAC-12 title. Williams completed 19 of 34 passes for 291 yards, one passing touchdown, and no interceptions. He also had a rushing touchdown and, as I mentioned, was sacked three times.

But honestly, Williams probably should have had another passing touchdown and another 100 yards through the air had it not been for a few game-wrecking drops and missteps by his receivers, which we’ll discuss. This is the first of many reminders in this series why watching the entire game before commenting on it is so crucial.

That caveat to is a good place to start. And by no coincidence, the first play we’re going to look at came on the first dropback of the game.

On a 2nd-and-10, we’ve got a play-fake and a designed bootleg to the right. Williams quickly gets through his reads and finds Brenden Rice on a go route on the left side. Williams throws a perfect pass that Rice almost catches in the end zone, but it wasn’t because Williams threw it too far. In the video below you’ll see Rice slow down around the 10-yard line, costing him the step he needed for that ball to be an easy touchdown catch.

That should have been a touchdown, and USC should have had an early lead over Oregon out of the gates. Here’s another excellent pass by Williams in structure that was dropped by his wide receiver later in the game.

That’s an ugly drop, the ball couldn’t have been thrown any better, and that should have been a chunk play and a first down with USC needing a score on that drive.

Here’s another bad drop, this one of less significance overall, but still, come on, man:

The receiver was si🌠mply doing too much here. You hear the phrase all the time, he was thinking about the run after the catch before he made the catch. The ball was a strike, and he just fumbled it.

The reason that it’s important to show these plays isn’t to make excuses for the quarterback, but to provide context. PFF has a stat that I like to use when evaluating quarterbacks at every level: . Adjusted completion percentage takes into account factors outside the quarterback’s control in terms of completing passes.

In this game, Caleb Williams’ adjusted completion percentage was 79% (19 of 24). It’s important to watch every play in the games instead of forming opinions about a player based on a screenshot shared on social media without context. You know which graphic I’m referring to in this case. But it’s not limited to this particular quarterback.

Look, I waited six weeks to do Justin Fields’ 2023 report card — and it was for a reason. Even though I had already seen every game one-to-two times during the season, I wanted to see them all again. If you’re going to have an opinion, make sure it’s an educated one.

In Fields’ report card, some said that I was too generous with Fields’ marks in certain areas. That’s because of two things: 1) it’s a mix of the eye test and metrics, not solely one or the other. Sometimes my eyes and the numbers don’t match, so I need to consider that. 2) I gave Fields some cushion, because I knew he was going to be no better than average, but I wanted to err on the side of fairness. To me, an average score for his third season in the NFL was a failing score. He needed to be above average to great this season to avoid the conversation we’re having now.

With Williams, you’ll see me grade him on the opposite end of the spectrum. I’m going to be hyper-critical of certain things such as bad decisions with the ball, or missed reads, even if the play resulted in positive yardage. Which is a perfect segue into our next group of clips from the Oregon game.

After the play where Brenden Rice almost scored a touchdown, Williams made a mꩲistake by taking🐓 a sack that could have been avoided. He ignored an open receiver who was running a shallow over route and instead tried to find a bigger play by moving up in the pocket. Unfortunately, Williams ended up running into another pass rusher.

That’s an avoidable play and a common flaw in Williams’ game. There’s no guarantee that the over route would have resulted in a first down (I doubt it would have based on the location of the defenders at the point in which he should have thrown the ball), but it would have been a positive play, the right decision, and he would have avoided taking an unessecary hit.

Here again, in the first half, we see Williams trying to make something ouꦍt of nothing. And in the process, he misses a touchdown.

Listen, big time points for escapability here. Williams somehow turned this into a gain of 10 and a first down, but I said that I was going to be hyper-critical of turn-downs in the passing game. The result was posi✨tive, and it works in college, but I want to see Williams make this throw right here:

Williams could have thrown the ball to the wide receiver in the end zone, near the “E” in the Oregon logo. The defender was turning around. Instead, he chose to improvise, and again, it worked out well. I’m splitting hairs a little here, but that’s something I would like to see Williams do in the future.

Again, the Oregon pass rush was relentless in this game. Williams getting sacked only three times was directly attributed to his ability to escape and improvise. Sometimes, though, I would have preferred Williams just take the sack. Here he’s under immediate pressure and in trying to make a play, he creates a bigger negative play:

But there were more positive results than negative when it came to Williams fleeing the Oregon pass rush in this game. Here’s one of my favorite examples:

Thꦺe fact that this turned into a first down completion is wild:

That’s a perfect example of Williams keeping his eyes downfield and looking for a completion rather than tucking it and taking off when things get dicey behind the line of scrimmage. I want a quarterback who can escape from defenders, but also prioritize making throws over running for yardage. Caleb Williams consistently does that.

He also learns from his mistakes. The Oregon game showed us a perfect example of Williams correcting a mistake and seeing it pay off right away. Lincoln Riley dials up a comeback route for Brenden Rice at the goal line on back-to-back plays. On the first play, Williams throws to the wrong si🌳de of Rice and the cornerback was able to break the pass up. On the next play, Williams sticks it on the pylon side where only Rice can catch it for a USC touchdown.

We’re going to wrap this up with some “big boy throws.” These are throws that impressed me for one reason or another. Whether it be the accuracy of the throw, finding receivers through quick progressions, pro style throws, etc.

♚First up, a beautiful ball thrown off balance with a rusher closing in:

Next, we have a 4th-and-4 late in the game where Williams throws an excellent ball on the run that was dropped by his receiver as he went to the ground. This ball had 47 air yards on it, thrown on the run, off balance, and dropped into the receiver’s hands.

I noticed two great plays late in the game. They weren’t amazing, but they were perfectly executed. As the game went on, Oregon’s pass rush slowed down a bit and Williams was able to work from the pocket more. When that happened, completions on slants over the middle, comeback routes near the boundary, and other pro style plays started to appear in volume. When they were there, Williams executed them.

My notes from every throw are below. You’ll see six (6) double-plus plays (a special throw or play by the quarterback, including drops or mistakes by the wide receiver or other results out of the control of the quarterback).

There are 21 plus plays (a positive play, good decision, or good throw by the quarterback), six plays with no mark (a play that’s not fairly reflective of the quarterback’s performance one way or another), 11 minus plays (a poor decision, poor play, or poor throw by the quarterback), and two double-minus plays (a horrible throw or decision that resulted in a turnover that was the quarterback’s fault, or a turnover worthy play that was the quarterback’s fault).

One of the double-minuses was the strip sack we talked about earlier, where Williams was trying to do too much. There was also🌜 a failed handoff to a r🔯unning back (which appeared to be a miscommunication) that led to a turnover.

It’s also worth reiterating I was very critical of decision-making, and that is reflected in the minus plays. But overall, 67% of Williams’ dropbacks were plus or double-plus plays. And again, his adjusted completion percentage of 79% was reflective of that.

For anyone other than USC fans hoping for a PAC-12 title shot, this was not the horror show that it was painted as by some. Williams was under fire all day and made some inc💛redible plays. He made mistakes because he was trying to do too much, due to the constant pressure from the pass rush.

Final Takeaways

Good

Can make any throw, from just about any angle or position.

Improvises with the best of them, and looks to pass first even when bailing.

Can make the majority of the in-structure throws afforded to him.

Quick through progressions.

Bad

Has to cut down on the hero ball turnovers and negative plays.

Missed some layups.

Would like to see him take the check down or underneath route more often.