The early projections for NFL roಌokie leaders are out, . And when it comes to the leaderboard for passing and receiving yards, Chicago Bears fans will see some familiar faces.
Caleb Williams projects to re-write the Bears rookie passing record books
PASSING YARDS, TOUCHDOWNS
- CALEB WILLIAMS, Chicago Bears: 3,532 yards, 23 touchdowns
- J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings: 3,527 yards, 19 touchdowns
- Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 3,457 yards, 16 touchdowns
- Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 3,378 yards, 17 touchdowns
- Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 3,165 yards, 16 touchdowns
Projections tend to be conservative by nature. And yet, Caleb Williams hitting these marks would make his rookie season one of the all-time best in Chicago Bears franchise history. This team hasn’t had a quarterback throw for at least 23 touchdowns since Mitchell Trubisky had 24 in 2018. In fact, a Bears quarterback throwing for 20+ touchdowns has happened only 12 times in franchise history. As for the 3,532 passing yards, getting to that number would put Williams in the top-5 for a Chicago QB in a single season. The bar is so comically low.
My other big takeaway here is that the projections for Caleb Williams and J.J. McCarthy speak highly of the situations they’re landing in, respectively. Both Williams and McCarthy enter offenses with solid veteran receivers (DJ Moore and Keenan Allen in Chicago, Justin Jefferson in Minnesota), quality tight ends (Bears have Cole Kmet, while Vikings counter with T.J. Hockenson), and serviceable offensive lines. I don’t think the forecast would be too rosy if that wasn’t the case.
The Rome Odunze forecast doesn’t have 1,000 receiving yards in his future , but…
RECEIVING YARDS, TOUCHDOWNS
- Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals: 1,121 yards, 6 touchdowns
- Malik Nabers, New York Giants: 1,033 yards, 5 touchdowns
- Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: 814 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns
- Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills: 810 yards, 5 touchdowns
- ROME ODUNZE, Chicago Bears: 803 yards, 6 touchdowns
OK, so the Rome Odunze projection isn’t as lofty as the one attached to his quarterback. And it falls a few hundred yards short of the 1,000-yard forecast that was recently given to him by Artificial Intelligence (yes, seriously, that was a thing 🔜that 🀅happened). Nevertheless, an 803-yard, 6-touchdown season in Year 1 would be pretty sweet to see.
Let’s give those numbers some perspective. For starters, an 803-yard season would’ve made him the Bears’ second-leading receiver in 2023 behind D.J. Moore (1,364 yards) and ahead of Cole Kmet. In 2022, an 803-yard campaign would’ve been tops among all Bears pass-catchers. That season, Kmet’s 544 receiving yards paced the pack. Between 2020 and 2022, Allen Robinson (1,250 yards in 2020) and Darnell Mooney (1,055 yards in 2021) were the only pass-catchers to haul in more than 800 yards passing in a single season. The bar for pass-catchers in Chicago is so low that Odunze, as WR option No. 3, projects to clear it with ease as a rookie.
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When the Chicago Bears were going years without having a first-round pick, I wasn’t all too antsy about checking out future projections.
However, the Bears had *TWO* top-10 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. And now, the first set of projections for rookies are out. Suddenly, I’m totally invested in what way-too-early projections have in store for Chicago’s football team’s first-year players. I want to dive into the rest of the roster projections later. But for now, what the ESPN projection machine spits out regarding Bears rookies is top of mind. Would you be happy with those numbers? Or would they be disappointing to you? I’m looking forward to seeing some feedback.
