JJ McCarthy’s Rookie Season is Over Before It Could Even Start — Now What?

ICYMI: Minnesota Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy’s surgery will keep him out for the entire 2024 season. McCarthy, chosen with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, sees his rookie season end before it could truly begin. The 2024 season was likely to be a redshirt campaign f♛or McCarthy, but now it really is just that for the suburban La Grange native.

So … what’s next for JJ McCarthy? The Vikings? And others? Let’s discuss.

The Sam Darnold Show begins in earnest

There is no reason for Sam Darnold to look over his shoulder anymore. With JJ McCarthy out for the year, Darnold becomes the unquestioned QB1 in Minnesota. The Vikings signed Darnold on a one-year “prove it” deal last March, positioning him to be a bridge to a quarterback to be drafted later — who proved to be McCarthy. But instead of following a potential storyline in which McCarthy could usurp Darnold and knock him off his starter’s perch, Darnold gets the whole season to prove himself. Good luck with that…

The way I see it: The Samꦺ Da🌳rnold experience can go one of three ways:

  • Option I: Sam Darnold follows the path laid out by Geno Smith and goes from New York Jets flameout … to bridge quarterback option … to playing well enough to earn a Franchise Tag … to veteran placeholder starter who is comfortably a middle-of-the-pack starter who can guide a team into the playoffs if everything goes right. There aren’t too many Geno Smiths out there, so I wouldn’t bet the house on Darnold going that route. But it isn’t impossible, especially with the array of talent Darnold gets to play with in Minnesota.
  • Option II: The new Vikings QB1 plays well enough to keep the team afloat for the 2024 season. He isn’t awful (but isn’t great). There are some good times, and some not-so-good ones. At the end of the season, the Minnesotans look up after 18 weeks and realize they weren’t good enough to compete for a playoff spot … but also aren’t bad enough to bottom out for a top-5 draft pick. Think something along the lines of the 2023 Bears — good enough to where the losses hurt, but not quite where you’d want them to be on the competitive scale.
  • Option III: Sam Darnold stinks. The Vikings stink. And as a result, Minnesota gets a top-5 pick to play with when the 2025 NFL Draft rolls around. This would be my nightmare scenario because it would allow the Vikes to get an upper-echelon prospect to build around JJ McCarthy when he finally gets healthy.
  • Aug 2, 2024; Eagan, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) and quarterback Sam Darnold (14) warm up during practice at Vikings training camp in Eagan, MN. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

    What does JJ McCarthy’s injury mean for the Bears?

    In theory, the Chicago Bears’ climb up the NFC North standings gets a little easier. I was thinking that JJ McCarthy would be the Vikings’ starter by the time the two teams met later in the season. If you’ll recall, the first Bears-Vikings matchup isn’t until Week 12 at Soldier Field. Three weeks later, the teams play again on Monday Night Football in Week 15. It wouldn’t have taken a vivid imagination to envision a football world in which McCarthy takes over for Darnold by that point. But with the injury, surgery, and trip to IR, that isn’t happening.

    CHICAGO BEARS 2024 SCHEDULE: Dates, Times, TV, More

    In 2024 season projections by ESPN’s Mike Clay (), this is what the forecast looked like for the Bears’ games against the Vikings:

  • WEEK 12: CHI 23.6, MIN 19.5 – Bears win probability 65%
  • WEEK 15: CHI 22.5, MIN 20.6 – Bears win probability 57%
  • From a projected won-loss standpoint, I don’t think the JJ McCarthy injury changes things drastically for the Bears. At least, based on these projections, I hope that is the case. But maybe there will be a change whenever Clay does a re-boot because he had McCarthy getting more playing time than Darnold (12 games to 5) and posting a respectable 3,007 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in those contests. I’m curious to see what a full-season projection looks like for Sam Darnold. That’ll probably be a post for another day, so stay tuned.

    In the end…

    I’ll admit that it is weird to write about another team’s key injury. On the one hand, I feel awful for the player. It stinks that an injury is throwing a wrench in JJ McCarthy’s development plan and is keeping a highly touted quarterback prospect off the field. But on the other hand, I’m not actively rooting for the Vikings to do well. Ultimately, I hope that McCarthy heals up and gets back into playing shape for next year — just in time for the Bears to sack him a bunch in two decisive wins for Chicago’s football team for as long as he plays in Minnesota.

    More than anything, I’m reminded that the Bears need to handle business at home before worrying too much about what is happening elsewhere. This isn’t to say that the Bears or their fans shouldn’t be cognizant of what is happening in other places in the league. However, what I am saying is that this team has enough to work on at Halas Hall to be overly concerned with what is happening in Minnesota, Green Bay, Detroit, orཧ anywhere else.

    Jun 18, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings first round draft pick JJ McCarthy throws out the ceremonial first pitch in a game between the Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
    Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

    written by

    Luis C. Medina, who you can find on Twitter at lcm1986, has been covering the Chicago Bears at Bleacher Nation since 2017. Since then, he has written about 3 head coaches, 5 play-callers,ཧ and 11 starting quarterbacks. Previously, Luis wrote about the Cubs and MLB at BN (2015-16) and worked in the Chicago Tribune sports department (2011-16). He also co-hosted a Cubs ꦬpostgame show, Outside the Ivy, in 2019.

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