The Chicago Bears travel to Houston this week to take on the Texans on Sunday Night Football. On Wednesday, Matt broke down the Texans’ offensive tendencies and how they stack up against the Bears’ defensive tendencies, and today, I’m going to do the same with the Bears’ offensive tendencies and the Texans’ defensive tendencies.
Chicago Bears Offensive Starting Lineup
*Rome Odunze’s status for this weekend’s matchup is up in the air as he deals with a low-grade MCL sprain. (Luis: Things are iffy now, but the big-picture status looks encouraging.)
Houston Texans Defensive Starting Lineup
Bears Offensive Tendencies
It’s hard to say definitively what the Chicago Bears’ offensive tendencies are under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron after just one regular season game. Still, we have some data to help us paint a loose picture heading into this week.
In 2023, Shane Waldron had the Seattle Seahawks lined up in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three receivers) 64.2 percent of the time on early downs, which ranked 15th in the league. When Waldron had the Seahawks in 11 personnel on early downs, they passed the ball 69 percent of the time, which ranked fifth in the league. Waldron’s second most-used package on early downs was 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, and two receivers), and he passed the ball out of that formation on early downs 50 percent of the time.
From that, we can assume that when in 11 personnel are on early downs, expect the pass. It’s a coin toss when in 12 personnel are on early downs.
On third and fourth downs, Waldron’s offense in Seattle was in 11 personnel 85 percent of the time (11th in the league) and passed out of that package 93 percent of the time (first in the league). On third and fourth down, expect 11 personnel and expect a pass.
During the preseason, Waldron had the Bears in 11 personnel 46 pe🐷rcent of the time, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. He had more than three receivers lined up on early downs 48 percent of the time (fifth-highest) and two or more tight ends lined up in early-down situations 40 percent of the time (sixth-highest).
In Week 1, Waldron’s personnel groupings were odd. The Bears’ top three receivers — DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze — were on the field together for only 10 snaps. Tight end Cole Kmet played only 48 percent of the snaps, while Gerald Everett played 61 percent of the time.
On Thursday, Wald🀅ron admitted that he needs t𒀰o find a better balance.
“That’s more on us, starting with me, of gettin♉g♛ the reps a little balanced out,” . “But it also goes back to playing efficient football.”
Texans Defensive Tendencies
DeMeco Ryans runs a 4-3 defense in Houston, but don’t expect to see a singular base package. Houston ran almost 1,100 plays on defense in 2023 and lined up with 480 different groupings, the eighth most in the NFL last season.
Much like we’ve seen in Chicago, Houston has leaned into the new trend of playing a 4-2-5 look (four linemen, two linebackers, five defensive backs) rather than the traditional 4-3-4 based 4-3 look (four linemen, three linebackers, four defensive backs). Many base 4-3 defenses in the NFL have shifted to this as their base package to combat the growth of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three receivers) as the predominant offense around the league.
Of Houston’s 1,100 plays run on defense last season, 78.2 percent were in the 4-2-5 look, with the traditional 4-3-4 being their top “sub-package” at 18.6 percent. Expect to see five defensive backs on the field most of the time for Houston.
So, what does that mean for the Bears’ offense?
In 2023, Houston was league average in EPA/Pass against 11 personnel, which figures to be Shane Waldron’s main look if his tendencies from his time in Seattle continue.
Houston allowed 27 points to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. Colts starting quarterb🥂ack Anthony Richardson threw for 212 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in a 29-27 Texans victory. Despite escaping with a win, Houston was vulnerable to the deep ball, with Alec Pierce averaging 41.7 yards per reception on three catches and Ashton Dulin hauling in a 54-yard touchdown reception. Additionally, Adonai Mitchell had an 88.89 percent separation rate in Week 1, the most of any wide receiver with more than six opportunities.
X-Factor
DJ Moore
If the Bears offense is going to get going, DJ Moore will have to be more than a deep decoy in Houston. At this point, we have no idea if Rome Odunze will play, which makes it challenging to make a pick, but I w🅺ill go with Moore.
The Bears can win this game if they can exploit Houston’s deficiencies against the deep ball on Sunday night. DJ Moore should be a big part of that. In 2023, Moore ranked fifth in the NFL in deep targets and seventh in EPA (+83.9).
Moore’s Average Target Distance (ADOT) was 10.9 yards. In Week 1, it was 6.6 yards. That will have to change as Waldron finds the right balance in his offense here in Chicago.
Last week, much of the game plan revolved around feeding Keenan Allen the ball on intermediate choice routes. Allen had a 45.8 percent target rate in Week 1,🔯 the highest clip in the league. His ADOT was 9.5 yards.
Allen’s ADOT in 2023 was 9.6, 8.5 in 2022, and 8.9 in 2021. In Week 1, Allen had two deep targets, averaging roughly 1.5 per game in the previous three seasons. So, it seems like Waldron has a good plan for Allen in terms of the route tree that he’s installed for him, which jives with his career averages, but he’s got to get DJ Moore doing more of what he’s best at and stop using him as a screener out of the backfield and a short stick route guy, exclusively.
Again, it’s just one week’s worth of data, and Waldron admitted today that he wasn’t happy with the personnel balance last week, so there’s not much cause for concern. But if Chicago is going to beat Houston, they will need to beat them deep, and Moore should be a significant part of that game plan.
Honorable Mention: Braxton Jones
Jones will have his work cut out for him this week lined up opposite Will Anderson Jr. Anderson led all rookies in pressures last season with 64 and generated the most “quick pressures” (35) of any rookie since 2018 ().
Anderson’s average pass-rush-get-off was 0.76 seconds, the quickest by any Houston defender since 2018. In 2023, Jones allowed the ninth-highest quick pressure rate among left tackles with 250 pass block snaps or more at 4.5 percent.
If Anderson eats Jones alive, there won’t be much time for deep shots. In structure, anyway.
