Caesars Sportsbook has an existing user promo available during the MLB All-Star break. If you bet $50 on any World Series winner future by Sunday, you’ll get $25 in bonus bets no matter what.
This is a no-brainer promo to bet. It gets a little intensive on the math, but just know that no matter which team you take, it’s probably a . We’ll break down why it’s so profitable, and some teams to consider betting.
If you haven’t signed up at Caesars, you can still get a $1,250 first bet on the house. Just make sure to use that offer first on something else before claiming and betting the World Series promo.
$1,000 First Bet on Caesars
If the player's Qualifying Wager is graded as a Loss by Caesars, the Participant will earn a one-time Bonus Bet token equ▨al to the lessor of (1) the full value of the Qualifying Wager or 2) $1,000 (the “Bonus Bet”)
- Strong VIP Rewards Including Bonus Bets
- Tier Credits Earned For Every Bet Placed
One other important note — you’ll get the bonus bets now, not at the end of the MLB playoffs, and you have seven days to use them before they expire.
The Math Behind This Promo
Assuming your bonus bets convert at 70% (which is a typical rate if you’re ), a $50 wager becomes a $32.5 wager ($50 – $17.5).
I’ll use the Orioles as my example here at 25-1, because Caesars has a favorable price compared to some other sportsbooks, including Pinnacle, which is closer to 21-1.
- Your $50 bet, assuming a bonus bet conversion of 70% on the $25 you’ll get from this promo, becomes a $32.5 bet.
- Your payout on a $50 bet at 25-1 is $1,250, but since you’re really only betting $32.5 in this case, it’s more like you’re betting the Orioles at +3846 (1,250 / 32.5).
Another way to look at it is through the lens of “expected value” which is how much money you’d make for every dollar wagered if this bet played out an infinite number of times.
If you remove the vig from Circa Sports’ World Series futures, we get a “fair price” on the Orioles winning at around +2105. FanGraphs’ projections like the Orioles a bit less at just 2.9% to win the World Series, but we like to rely on the “wisdom of the crowds” approach by the betting market as opposed to one projection system that has no skin in the game.
Our Picks
For promos like this, there♒ are two main things you want to look for:
- Is the price at Caesars favorable compared to other sportsbooks?
- Does the price you end up with provide high expected value compared to the “true” price?
- Does the team actually have a chance to make the playoffs?
You could get 1000% EV on the Rockies based on the math, but they have a less than 0.1% chance to even make the playoffs, so it would take many, many tries for this bet to pay off. And we don’t have that luxury in sports betting.
$1,000 First Bet on Caesars
If the player's Qualifying Wager is graded as a Loss by Caesa꧒rs, the Participant will earn a one-time Bonus Bet token equal to the lessor of (1) the full value of the Qualifying Wager or 2) $1,000 (the “Bonus Bet”)
- Strong VIP Rewards Including Bonus Bets
- Tier Credits Earned For Every Bet Placed
Option 1: Orioles
The Orioles check a lot of boxes here. The 25-1 at Caesars is the best in market, and it’s favorable compared to other sportsbooks — especially two books with sharper lines like Pinnacle and Circa Sports.
If the fair value is +2105 of the Orioles winning the World Series, per Circa, and you’re getting them north of 35-1, you’re at close to 70% EV.
Option 2: Marlins
The Marlins also have a favorable price compared to other sportsbooks, with Circa’s true price at +3863. Getting 50-1 on its own from Caesars provides some value, plus with the bonus bets, it’s more like 77-1.
That’s good for close to 100% expected value, meaning on average you’ll profit $1 for every $1 wagered.
Option 3: Braves
Unfortunately, Caesars’ pricing on many of the favorites is pretty bad. There aren’t many strong options among the top teams.
The Braves do offer some value, at around 22% EV. The “true odds” using Pinnacle’s futures market for the Braves to win the World Series are +411, and with this promo, you’ll be getting them at about +523.
