2024 Masters Best Bets: Top Debutant – The annual trek to Augusta National Golf Club is an honor for any professional golfer, but returning golfers know what they’re in for. For those teeing it up for the first time at the Masters, ignorance is definitely not bliss.
I’m required by law to inform you of two pertinent pieces of information. First, course history matters more at Augusta National than at any other course on Tour. Second, no golf has won in their debut since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
It’s also unusual to see such a loaded class of debutants. It’s 20 deep, with two of them currently among the top 10 in the Official World Golf Rankings, including the current U.S. Open champ. Seven of the 20 have won PGA Tour events in 2024. Three played in the Ryder Cup. But this is their first Masters.
If you haven’t already done so, please take a moment to check out my at . It features a quick look at every player in this year’s field, including their recent history at Augusta National, their best career finish here, along with a statistical look at their recent form heading into the week.
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2024 Masters: Top Debutant
Ludvig Åberg
In September, Åberg notched his first DP World Tour victory in Switzerland at the Omega European Masters. He then played a pivotal role in the European Ryder Cup team’s victory over the United States in Italy. Capping off a whirlwind year, Åberg secured his first PGA Tour win on American soil at the RSM Classic in November.
An eighth-place finish at The PLAYERS marked his fifth-straight T25 or better finish, and he made it six in a row with a T14 last week in San Antonio. His driver is such a weapon, sometimes quite literally, and h👍is iron play has been consistently strong. Åberg has gained strokes on approach (SG: APP) in 12 of his past 13 measured events.
Wyndham Clark
Clark proved early in 2024 that his 2023 run was no fluke, kicking things off with a victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, etching his name in the record books with a scorching 60 at Pebble Beach Golf Links. This win was followed by back-to-back runner-up finishes to Scottie Scheffler at the Arnold Pa♕lmer Invitational and The Players Championship. ⛦;
Getting close and not winning is tough, but it solidified Clark’s position as one of the hottest players on Tour. Clark’s game is well-suited for Augusta. He’s long off the tee, his irons are completely dialed in, and his on-and-around-the-green game is as good as anyone in the world.
Akshay Bhatia
I expect Bhatia to play well again after a dramatic win at last week’s Valero. As is the case with any young golfer, Bhatia’s week-to-week performance remains a bit volatile. The Valero win was his 10th start this season, and he’s finished T17 or better in six of the 10 starts. In the other four starts, Bhatia failed to see the weekend.
Bhatia led the field in greens in regulation % in each of his past two starts, finishing second in SG: APP last week in Houston, and he led the field in San Antonio. He’s among the top 10 in the field in total driving, with a strong mix of distance and accuracy. His bag is deep; he can work the ball both ways and his short game is much improved.
Denny McCarthy
A back-9 28 at the Valero Texas Open on Sunday showed the ceiling that Denny McCarthy is capable of on the greens. Generally, McCarthy is a fairly average ball-striker who lacks distance and rarely gains strokes tee-t🉐o-green (T2G). I🃏n fact, over the past 12 months, Denny McCarthy has gained 1+ strokes T2G in just 17.86% of his rounds, the second-lowest rate on Tour.
Stephan Jaeger
That Houston win was the first of Jaeger’s career, but it was the third time that he was in contention on a Sunday this season after he finished T3 at both Torrey Pines and Mexico’s Vidanta Vallarta.
Jaeger plays with a ton of poise and confidence and swings from his toes, leading to him playing his best on the longest tracks this season. That distance advantage should help him this week as he makes his Masters debut, and if he can avoid a disastrous putting week, I think we’ll see him on the weekend.
Nicolai Hojgaard
The just-turned-23-year-old Dane profiles as a contender for years to come at Augusta National. He flashed massive upside late last season and through the fall, with multiple top-5 finishes on the DP World Tour, including a ♋November win at the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai. He played well for Team Europe during their Ryder Cup victory in September, likely the first of many Ryder Cup appearances for Hojgaard.
A solo second-place finish at Torrey Pines kicked off his PGA Tour season with a bang, but he’s scuffled since. The ball-striking was dialed in at last week’s Valero, but his short game stands in his way.
Matthieu Pavon
Matthieu Pavon has clearly figured something out with his game this season because a look at his career performances prior to this season’s run, which includes a surprise win at Torrey Pine’s Farmers Insurance Open, shows a very different golfer.
Over the past seven years, Pavon’s made around 27 starts a year on the DP World Tour. He has one career win and never had a season with more than two T5 or better finishes. In 2024, Pavon has made eight starts and has three T5 or better finishes, including the win at Torrey Pines. His approach play is massively improved, and he’s been putting like he’s peak Brad Faxon, so that’ll likely tail off at some point.
Jake Knapp
Jake Knapp punched his ticket to Augusta with a win in Mexico back in February, and he’s knocked on the door a couple of other times as well, with T5 finishes at Torrey Pines (T3) and PGA National (T4). The PGA Tour rookie has struggled a bit since, which tempers my expectations for him in his first walk around Augusta National. He hits it a mile, though, so he’s fun to watch.
Eric Cole
The start of 2024 hasn’t been as kind to the mini-tour grinder turned 2023 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year, Eric Cole. Cole made 18 straight cuts from June’s Memorial Tournament to February’s Farmers Insurance Open, with eight of those 18 made cuts being top 20 finishes. 2024 has been a rotation of flat finishes and missed cuts.
Austin Eckroat
Austin Eckroat’s irons are dialed in right now, but his short game needs to be more consistent to expect to succeed around here on your first time through. His overall skill profile isn’t a great fit for Augusta National unless he adds length and tightens up his short game.
Nick Dunlap
It was great to see Nick Dunlap contend in Houston with a T11 finish in his Masters t♍une-up, his first strong showing since his win at PGA West in January. That win etched h🙈is name in history as the first amateur PGA Tour winner since Phil Mickelson in 1991.
The pedigree is strong, and you can make a case f💖or Dunlap as a viable longshot north of 20/1.
Adam Schenk
Adam Schenk had 12 T20 or better finishes over 89 starts from 2020 to 2022 and nearly matched that mark in 2023 with 11 T20 finishes, the b♏est season of his career.
So far, 2024 hasn’t been as kind. Schenk’s plus distance will help him navigate Augusta National, but he has lost strokes on approach in six of his nine measured events this season, and that’s not going to get it done around here.
Ryo Hisatune
The 21-year-old Japanese phenom enjoyed a breakout season in 2023, securing PGA Tour membership through the DP World Tour. Hisatune’s best finish on Tour to date was his T11 finish at La Quinta’s American Express in January, and his fall run on the DP World Tour this past fall, including a win in France, showed why he’s one of the more exciting prospects in the game. He’s been far too inconsistent to trust right now.
Lee Hodges
Lee Hodges’ short game and driving distance are below Tour average, which is not a great recipe for success at Augusta, especially not for a debutant. He’s finished T35 or better in four of his past five starts, but a lot of the results are driven by strong putting performances rather than bankable ball-striking skills.
Peter Malnati
After posting two T10 finishes in 31 starts, Peter Malnati broke through at the Valspar Championship with his first PGA Tour win since 2015’s Sanderson Farms. Malnati’s lack of distance is a real issue in terms of his ability to contend or make the cut, but perhaps he can carry his current form into some weekend golf. He’d have to consider that a win.
Grayson Murray
Grayson Murray’s stunning win at January’s Sony Open feels more and more like an outlier the further away we get from that Sunday playoff finish. Since his Sony Open win, he’s missed the cut in three of the six events, but given his inconsistent Iron play and below-average short game, my expectations of seeing Murray on the weekend are fairly low.
Christo Lamprecht (A)
Christo Lamprecht looks more like a starting forward for the Georgia Tech basketball team than the top-ranked amateur in the world. The 6’8″ South African made a splash during major season in 2023 after being the first-round leader and Low Amateur at The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.
I think Lamprecht makes sense as a look at the top of the low amateur market, but I’m not sure he has the firepower to contend with this elite debutant group quite yet.
Santiago De La Fuente (A)
A dramatic two-shot victory at the Latin America Amateur Championship in January earned Santiago De La Fuente a trip to Augusta, along with invitations to the U💝.S. Open and The Open Championship later this summer. Not a viable option in this debutant field.
Jasper Stubbs (A)
The 22-year-old Aussie won the Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship at Royal Melbourne last October, which earned him an invite to this year’s Masters and Open Championship. He posted four solid rounds at the Australian Open back in December, an event featuring all the top Aussies, finishing T21 and earning low amateur honors in front of the home crowd.
Neal Shipley (A)
The Ohio St product finished runner-up to Nick Dunlap at the 2023 U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills last season, punching his ticket to this year’s Masters and U.S. Open. He’s built like Harry Higgs but with significantly better hair.
