The Madness is upo♕n us and just about everyone you know will be filling out at least one NCAA Tournament bracket. Or at least they should be. The question that most will be asking is, “Which March Madness upset/upsets should I be picking in the first round?”. Well today, we’re here to help with that by looking at the 15 vs. 2 matchups and which i๊s the most likely March Madness upset.
History of 15 seeds vs. 2 seeds during March Madness
Before diving into the history of the 15 seed vs. 2 seed, it’s important to know that the NCAA Tournament didn’t expand to 64 teams until 1985, thus marking the first tournament with a 15 seed vs 2 seed matchup. Since then, there have🍰 been 152 such games, and we’ve only seen 11 occurrences of a 15-s🅺eed taking down a 2-seed during the tournament’s opening round.
Of the 11 winners, ho༒wever, 7 have come sinc𓆏e 2012. And most shockingly, we’ve had a 15-seed vs. 2-seed upset in the last three NCAA Tournaments. The most recent was the Princeton Tigers defeating the Arizona Wildcats, 59-55 last year.
| Year | 15 seed | 2 seed | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | Richmond | Syracuse | 73-69 |
| 1993 | Santa Clara | Arizona | 64-61 |
| 1997 | Coppin State | South Carolina | 78-65 |
| 2001 | Hampton | Iowa State | 58-57 |
| 2012 | Lehigh | Duke | 75-70 |
| 2012 | Norfolk State | Missouri | 86-84 |
| 2013 | Florida Gulf Coast | Georgetown | 78-68 |
| 2016 | Middle Tennessee | Michigan State | 90-81 |
| 2021 | Oral Roberts | Ohio State | 75-72 |
| 2022 | Saint Peter’s | Kentucky | 85-79 |
| 2023 | Princeton | Arizona | 59-55 |
2024 March Madness upset picks: 15 seed vs. 2 seed matchups
Here ar🧔e the four 15 vs. 2 matchups for this year.
| Region | 15 seed | 2 seed |
|---|---|---|
| East | South Dakota St. (22-12) | Iowa St. (27-7) |
| West | Long Beach St. (21-14) | Arizona (25-8) |
| South | Western Kentucky (22-11) | Marquette (25-9) |
| Midwest | Saint Peter’s (19-13) | Tennessee (24-8) |
A couple of familiar names find themselves in this game once again with Arizꦇona looking to bounce 🦹back from last season’s loss to Princeton. The Peacocks of Saint Peter’s, the darling of 2022, and the only 15 seed to ever make it past the Sweet 16, return to face Tennessee. Can they repeat their magic from that season or will it be a different 15-seed wearing Cinderella’s slipper? Let’s try and find our first potential March Madness upset with which 15 seed is the most likely to win the first round.
One commonꦿ theme among the last three 15 vs. 2 upsets is that each of the 2 seeds who lost, ranked outside the top 100 in opponent points per game on the season.
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East Region: 15 South Dakota St. vs. 2 Iowa St.
The Jackrabbitsဣ rank well outside of the top 100 in adjusted offensive and defensive rankings and they struggle to rebound. The Cyclones, on the other hand, are No. 1 in adjusted defensive ranking and 55th offensively. Also of note, South Dakota St. went just 3-3 in games they 𒆙did not score at least 70 points this season. They’re facing an Iowa St. squad that hasn’t allowed more than 65 points in their last eight games.
That’s not to say that Iowa State can’t score too though. The Cyclo꧑nes have 15 wins in which they scored more than 75 points which w🅠ould almost certainly be a death sentence for South Dakota St. You see, the Jackrabbits, whose strength is offense, actually went 3-9 in games allowing 75 or more points and if expanded to 73 points allowed, 3-11. I can’t envision the Big 12 Tournament champs leaving the NCAA Tournament without at least one victory.
West Region: 15 Long Beach St. vs. 2 Arizona
This game offers one of the most intriguing and interesting storylines of the tournament. This past Monday, Long Beach St. announced that current and 🐟longtime head coach Dan Monson would not be returning after the season, then went ahead and won the Big West Conference Tournament to earn a bid to the big dance. Going even deeper, current Arizona Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd credits Monson with giving him his start in the coaching ranks.
The matchup🎶 probably won’t be as interesting though, with this being quite lopsided on paper. Arizona is highly rated in both offense (8th) and adjusted defense (12th) according to Kenpom. While the Beach, yes that is their team name now, ranks outside the top 140 in both categories. That said, they do have five players averaging over 10 points per game and wins against other P5 schools, DePaul, Michigan, and USC on their resume. Arizona also allows a ton of points because of their up-temp style, putting them right back in the upset watch category.
Arizona has lost two of their last three games, with the most worrisome trend foꦆr the 3rd highest-scoring team in the land being that they’ve scored just under 65 points per game over this stretch. If their offensive struggles continue, Long Beach St. and their balanced attack have a shot to keep pace and potentially pull off the March Madness upset. Highly unlikely, but possible.
Check out these potential March Madness upset odds on !  🃏; ꦯ;
South Region: 15 Western Kentucky vs. 2 Marquette
The Hilltoppers are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013 and with one of the most experienced and deepest rosters in the field, they could be a problem for Marquette. Western Kentucky doesn’t have a single player averaging more than 27 minutes per game, which is probably a result of the breakneck speed at which they play. WKU ranks ꦫ1st in adjusted tempo and 27th in total shot attempts per game, with 2pt FG being their best attribute.
Unfortunately for them tho👍ugh, theyღ struggle from beyond the arc which is Marquette’s weakest point on defense. However, the Golden Eagles primarily deploy a 4-out, 1-in lineup, and don’t start a single player taller than 6-9. They’re extremely reliant on their top 3 players, Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones, and Oso Ighodaro for production.
This is very important because Kolek is still dealing with an oblique injury that has caused him to miss the team’s last six games. If h༒e’s limited or out for this game, WKU’s depth and tempo could be troublesome for Marquette. I’m a Big East basketball fan, but in the event that Kolek isn’t 100%, I’d have to say that WKU is the most likely 15 seed to pull o🐼ff the upset.
Midwest Region: 15 Saint Peter’s vs. 2 Tennessee
The Peacocks are back! We’re all excited to see one of the coolest teams in recent tournament memory back in the Bi💝g Danc🅠e, but will they be flaunting their feathers once again? This time around they open with an experienced Tennessee Volunteers team that plays equally as good on defense, and significantly better on offense than them.
On paper, this isn’t a close matchup with Saint Peter’s ranking outside the top 300 in Kenpom’s offe𒁃nsive rankings and playing one of, if not the slowest tempos in the country. This combination is dangerous against a squad like Tennessee which is the 3rd best team defensively and doing so against much tougher opponents mind you, and an offense th🤡at has picked up its pace, while also adding one of the top scorers in the game in Dalton Knecht.
In contrast to their 2022 team, this Saint Peter’s roster doesn’t do anything particularly well offensively. They only have two players scoring over 7 points per contest this year, and thꦓey don’t hit the boards as strongly as they once did. In the end, Tennessee will be too much for these Peacocks.
