It’s March, and that means the Madness is upon us. Almost everyone will be filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket, orꦛ at least they should be. The primary question before doing so will be, “Which upset/upsets, should I be picking in the first round?”. Well today, we’re gonna help with that. Let’s look at which 14 Seed is most likely to pull off the March Madness upset and win in the first round.
March Madness Upset Picks: History of 14 seeds vs. 3 seeds
Before we dive into the history of the 14 seed vs. ﷽3 seed, it’s important to realize that the NCAA Tournament didn’t include this particular matchup until 1985. That’s the first year with the current 64-team tournament format. There have b🍸een 152 of these matchups since then, and twice as many 14 seed vs. 3 seed upsets than 15 seeds vs. 2 seeds.
Since expanding to the 64-team field, there has been a 14 over 3 March Madness upset in 19 of the 38 tournaments. However, there has only been 1 such upset over the last six NCAA T🐲ournaments, and tha☂t was Abilene Christian beating Texas in 2021. Not surprisingly, most of these upsets come down to the wire, with three of the last four being decided by 1 point.
| Year | 14 seed | 3 seed | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | Cleveland State | Indiana | 83-79 |
| 1986 | Arkansas Little-Rock | Notre Dame | 90-83 |
| 1987 | Austin Peay | Illinois | 68-67 |
| 1988 | Murray State | NC State | 78-75 |
| 1989 | Siena | Stanford | 80-78 |
| 1990 | Northern Iowa | Missouri | 74-71 |
| 1991 | Xaver | Nebraska | 89-84 |
| 1992 | ETSU | Arizona | 87-80 |
| 1995 | Old Dominion | Villanova | 89-81 |
| 1995 | Weber State | Michigan State | 79-72 |
| 1997 | Chattanooga | Georgia | 73-70 |
| 1998 | Richmond | South Carolina | 62-61 |
| 1999 | Weber State | North Carolina | 76-74 |
| 2005 | Bucknell | Kansas | 64-63 |
| 2006 | Northwestern State | Iowa | 64-63 |
| 2010 | Ohio | Georgetown | 97-83 |
| 2013 | Harvard | New Mexico | 68-62 |
| 2014 | Mercer | Duke | 78-71 |
| 2015 | UAB | Iowa State | 60-59 |
| 2015 | Georgia State | Baylor | 57-56 |
| 2016 | Stephen F. Austin | West Virginia | 70-56 |
| 2021 | Abilene Christian | Texas | 53-52 |
2024 March Madness upset picks: 14 seed vs. 3 seed matchups
Here are the four 14 vs♎. 3 matchups for this year.
| Region | 14 seed | 3 seed |
|---|---|---|
| East | Morehead St. (26-8) | Illinois (26-8) |
| West | Colgate (25-9) | Baylor (23-10) |
| South | Oakland (23-11) | Kentucky (23-9) |
| Midwest | Akron (24-10) | Creighton (23-9) |
Of all the 14 vs 3 matchups this year, only the East Region is between conference tournament champs.💝 The three others have small school conference tournament champions against P5 schools who faltered in theirs.
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Although it was surprising, Abilene Christian’s win over Texas in 2021 was on the radar as a potential upset. Texas was mediocre when meas🐠ured against the other 3 seeds in oꦦffense and defensive efficiency. The Wildcats entered the game allowing the 5th fewest points per contest and ranked 26th in AdjD according to Kenpom.
East Region: 14 Morehead St. vs. 3 Illinois
Illinois has a high-powered offense led by Terren♓ce Shannon which is really strongဣ on the fast break. They’re scoring a ton of points, 84.4/gm, and coming off their first Big Ten tournament Championship since 2021. They really struggle on defense, however, ranking 93rd in AdjD according to , and can struggle against teams that slow the pace down.
This is exactly what Morehead State does, ♈as they’re 335th in AdjT on the year. The Eagles also shoot the ball really well, averaging 59% on 2PA, and 36% from deep. This team is also very good defensively, allowing opponents to shoot just 39% overall, and under 30% from beyond the arc. Despite their lack of size, Morehead State is a top-30 rebounding team.
The result of this game rests on which team’s style wins out. Morehead State’s lack of depth will struggle 🐭if it’s an up-and-down contest. Illinoi🐼s will need Marcus Domask and Coleman Hawkins to be really efficient in the event this game is slow. Illinois is riding high after winning the Big Ten title, but the Eagles’ confidence is also soaring with them riding a six-game win streak.
Seed-wise, this is a huge mismatch, but on the hardwood, I think it can be really close. This ജmight be the most likely March Madness upset among the 14 vs. 3 seed matchups.
West Region: 14 Colgate vs. 3 Baylor
This is an interesting game. The Raiders don’t have as good a team as they’ve had in past March Madness upset bids. The Baylor Bears have just one player from last year’s team as part of thei🎀r rotation. They both play at relatively 🧸slow paces with Baylor being 281st and Colgate 253rd in tempo. Both shoot the ball really well from the floor.
Where they differentiate is who these numbers were graded against. Baylor played the toughest schedule in the nation according to Kenpom. Colgate ranked just 340th in opponent strength on the year. The Bears have a legit 1-2 punch in the backcourt with freshman Ja’Kobe Walter and T🥃oledo transfer Rayj Dennis both scoring over 13 points per game. They also have four other players averaging double digits on the season as well.
They’re not a deep squad though, and the potential absence of Langston Love again would be an even bigger detriment against a Colgate squad that has 10 players averaging double-digit minutes. All told, Colgate will actually be the bigger, and deeper team when they meet in the first round. This adds up to a potential March Madness upset of epic proportion💦s. The fact that these teams play a similar style, and Baylor’s best players are eit🔴her freshmen or transfers from mid-majors, I think it’s closer than expected.
Check out these potential March Madness upset odds on !
South Region: 14 Oakland vs. 3 Kentucky
From people calling for his job to fighting for an SEC regular season championship. It’s been a year for Coach Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats. They’re the 2nd highest-scoring team in the nation but have recently decided to stop playing defense. They’re allowing an average of 90.1 points per game over their last six games and finished the year at 79.7 (344th).
Oakland, in Michigan not California, won both the Horizon League regular season and conference tournament. They had a really strong non-conference schedule that included games against fellow NCAA Tournament competitors, Illinois, Drake, and Michigan State. They didn’t win an🍌y of those matchups but won’t be scared going against the famous blue and white of ꧑Kentucky as a result.
In familiar fashion, Kentucky is freshman-heavy with four of their top six scorers being first-year players. The Golden Grizzlies play just one underclassman. If Oakland’s metrics stood out on one end of the court or another, I’d be more inclined to think a March Madness upset was possible. Their mediocrity in almost every aspect of the game, however, and their own defensive struggles make this very unlikely. I will add tha൲t this should be a very high-scoring game.
Midwest Region: 14 Akron vs. 3 Creighton
This is a fun opening-round game. Akron is back participating in March Madness after missing last season and is led by veteran coach John Groce. They used a strong defense along with a high volume of 3PA to take home the MAC conference tournament. The Zips have experience on their side as their top 7 minute-eaters and scorers are all upperclassmen. They’re led by Enrique Freeman and Ali Ali, who’re both averaging over 15 points per game on the season.
Creighton is back in the Tournament for the fourth consecutive season, which is just one short of the program’s longest streak of five, set back from 1999 – 2003 while playing in the MVC. The Bluejays returned their top 3 scorers from last season’s Elite 8 team. They also added sharpshooter Steven Ashworth from Utah State. Like Akron, Creighton plays at a relatively slow pace. But unlike the Zips, who are currently 164th in points scored per game, the Jays sit at just over 80 per contest, good for 33rd in the nation.
The big difference between these squads is in the paint where Creighton will hold a distinct advantage. Having a legit 7-footer in Ryan Kalkbrenner will make life really difficult for an Akron team that is best from inside the arc, doesn’t shoot well from deep, and doesn’t use a single player taller than 6’9. If the Zips do get hot from the perimeter, however, I think they can keep this game interesting. It’s possible because they do shoot a high volume from 3, but not very likely.
