It’s just about time for March Madness to begin!
This upcoming Thursday and Friday are arguably my two favorite days of the year on the sports ꧙calendar. The First Round of the NCAA Tournament always lives up to the hype. Upsets, chaos, and underdog stories – the opening round has it all.
seems like it has the potential for some chaos and some higher seeds to make a little noise on opening weekend. Let’s take a look at a few March Madness underdogs I like in the First Round.
First Round March Madness Underdogs
11-Seed New Mexico Over 6-Seed Clemson
New Mexico likes to play FAST and Clemson … does not. The Tigers had a great start to the season going 9-0 and picking up some impressive wins along the way, but they went just 11-9 and got blown out in the ACC Tournament’s opening round against Boston College in a very down year for the conference. They certainly deserved to make the tournament, but a 6-seed seems generous.
New Mexico comes into the tournament red-hot. They won four games in a row to take home the Mountain West Tournament title, which was capped by a win over 5-seed San Diego State. Often times guard play prevails in the NCAA Tournament, and that’s New Mexico’s strength. Their trio of guards – Jamal Mashburn Jr, Jaelen House, and Donovan Dent – all average over 14 points per game. They lead a New Mexico offense that is 18th in Division 1 in scoring with 82.6 points per game
Defensively, New Mexico is swarming. They force nearly 20 turnovers per game. Clemson plays slower and is good at protecting the basketball, but if the Lobos can up the pace they’ll have a chance to run away from a Tigers team that has been floundering down the stretch.
13-Seed Samford Over 4-Seed Kansas
The closer we get to tournament time, the more steam this potential upset seems to gain. It’s weird predicting a team as steady as Kansas to get picked off in the first round, but the Jayhawks haven’t been their normal selves this year.
Star guard and potential first-round NBA Draft pick will miss the entire NCAA Tournament which is a huge blow for Kansas. Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson missed his first game of the season in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament, and Kansas missed him big time. It seems like Dickinson will be b𒈔ack for Kansas against Samford, though.
Samford can shoot the heck out✱ of the ball from beyond the arc, and Kansas has struggled to defend the three this season. The Bulldogs scored the 5th most points per game (86.0) and also ranked 14th in tempo in Division I. So they play fast, and they like to shoot the three. Where they lack, however, is size and on the boards.
This one likely comes down to Hunter Dickinson and his health. If he’s at full strength, he can give the Bulldogs trouble on the boards and in the post. However, if he’s not fully healthy, Samford has a real shot in this game, especially now that the Jayhawks are without one of their star guards. If Samford wins, it’s likely due to a big performance from junior forward Achor Achor who averages just under 16 points per game.
12-Seed McNeese State Over 5-Seed Gonzaga
I feel so weird saying that Gonzaga is on upset watch in the first round, but that’s where we are this season. It’s not that the Zags are a bad team by any stretch, they’re just not the usual Bulldog squad we’ve seen over the past few years. Mark Few has been outstanding at getting his squad to the second weekend during his tenure with Gonzaga, but they have a really tough draw in this year’s opening game.
McNeese State is led by former LSU head coach Will Wade, who led the Tigers to the Sweet 16 in 2019. The Cowboys own a 30-3 record this season, and they do a lot of things well that seem to usually translate in March. For starters, they’re a great three-point shooting team. Wade’s squad shot over 38 percent from beyond the arc this season, and four of their five starters shot better than 40 percent from deep. They don’t take a ton of threes (they average 19.7 per game), but they’re great at generating good looks and are very efficient from deep.
The Cowboys are really strong defensively, as well. They sit behind just Houston and Iowa State with a +6.7 turnover margin per game in the country. So they take the ball away, they don’t turn it over, and they’re very efficient from deep. Gonzaga is good at taking the ball away and turning defense into offense, so this game feels like it comes down to the turnover margin.
13-Seed Vermont Over 4-Seed Duke
This one might be a little bit more of a longshot, but Vermont’s experience gives them a chance against Duke in the opening round. The matchup to watch will be how they handle Duke center Kyle Filipowski. Vermont lacks size down low, but what they lack in size they make up for in experience. If they can attack the paint early and get Filipowski into foul trouble, their experienced lineup will have a chance to slow the game down and play on their own terms.
The Catamounts also come into Friday’s matchup on a 10-game winning streak, so they’re playing some of their best basketball at the right time. Duke, on the other hand, has lost their last two games and will have had a full seven days off in between games. This one feels like the most unlikely of the upsets mentioned, but Vermont’s experienced roster gives them a chance if they can give Duke problems early and dictate the pace.
10-Seed Nevada Over 7-Seed Dayton
While this would be an upset in terms of the bracket, this wouldn’t be an upset when it comes to the oddsmakers, as the Wolfpack enter this game as a one-point favorite. Nevada can shoot the three, can get to the free throw line, and is in the top 40 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas make up a very solid backcourt, and as I mentioned earlier, guard play is so important in this tournament. Dayton, however, is also dangerous from deep.
This game will likely come down to who can dictate the pace. Nevada will try to play fast and push the pace while the Flyers will likely try and slow things down. With this game being pl꧒ayed in Salt Lake City and being a significant travel advantage for the Wolf Pack, if they can get the crowd behind them and push the pace throughout it will create a recipe to get Dayton out of their comfort zone.
