It’s time for the most wonderful two days on the sports calendar! Can the unthinkable happen two years in a row? Everyone is asking, will there be another epic March Madness upset of a 16 seed beating a 1? We’re here to briefly break down this year’s matchups a💧nd tell you if any have a shot at making history.
March Madness Upset Picks: History of 16 seeds vs. 1 seeds
Two, that’s it, just two 16 seeds have ever pulled off the biggest March Madness upsets. The first came in 2018 when the Virginia Cavaliers were absolutely throttled by the UMBC Terriers 74 – 54. Then last season, it was the Fairleigh Dickenson Knights and their tiny roster. Taking down a literal giant, in Zach Edey and the Purdue Boilermakers.
| Year | 16 seed | 1 seed | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | UMBC | Virginia | 74 – 54 |
| 2023 | Fairleigh Dickinson | Purdue | 63 – 58 |
2024 March Madness 16 seed vs. 1 seed matchups
The 16-seed vs. 1-seed matchups are always literal David v♏s. Goliath affairs. The 16 seeds are usually from the smallest of conferences and are often not the best from their respective conferences. There have even been instances where teams with losing records have played in these games. It just highlights the advantages that the 1 seeds, who are tꩲhe best teams in the tournament, have.
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| Region | 16 seed | 1 seed |
|---|---|---|
| East | Stetson (22-12) | UConn (31-3) |
| West | Wagner (17-15) | North Carolina (27-7) |
| South | Longwood (21-13) | Houston (30-4) |
| Midwest | Grambling (21-14) | Purdue (29-4) |
East Region: 16 Stetson vs. 1 UConn
16 Stetson: The Hatters, champions o♔f the Atlantic Sun Conference, are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in school history. They boast a 🤪strong offense, led by 20-point scorer Jalen Blackmon. Blackmon can light it up from beyond the arc and takes over 16 shots per game. As a team, Stetson is averaging over 36% from three-point range. Their 77.5 points scored per game ranks 75th in the nation.
1 UConn: The Huskies are the reigning national champions, and are back with another stupendous roster. UConn’s balanced, high-powered offense is spearheaded by Triston Newton and sharpshooters Cam Spencer and Alex Karaban. Big man Donovan Clingan has been a dominant force in the paint. They’re the No. 1 overall team according to . The Huskies boast the 1st overall offense and 12th-best defense as well.
Prediction: As was the case last season, this Huskies team can dominate on the defensive end. They’re allowing just 64.4 points per game this season. As of late they’ve gotten even better surrendering 67 or fewer points in six of their last seven games. The Hatters are simply not good enough on that side of the ball. They also likely don’t have enough scoring to keep pace with the National Championship favorite. UConn doesn’t really have a weakness and isn’t on upset alert one bit here.
West Region: 16 Wagner vs. 1 North Carolina
16 Wagner: Winners of the opening game of the First Four round, Wagner plays at the 2nd slowest pace of any team in the nation, and for good reason. They’ve been playing with just 7 total players for their last five games, but have persevered and won their last four. Their slow p💯ace has held these recent opponents to an average of just 57 points per game. This pace has been a necessity considering Wagner is 354th in FG% and doesn’t get to the free throw line either.
1 North Carolina: The Tar Heels were upset by Tobacco Road rival NC State in the ACC Tournament Championship game, but enter the Big Dance winners in eight of their last nine games. They’re th🎉e 23rd highest-scoring team in the nation, and have the dynamic sen🦄ior duo of RJ Davis and Armando Bacot still on the roster from their last Final Four run. Better yet for UNC, their defense has really emerged as a strong suit, and they rank 6th on that end of the court according to KenPom.
Prediction: North Carolina doesn’t go very deep into their bench and relies on a rotation of about 7-8 players. This is a benefit to the Seahawks, but it might be the only positive for this matchup. Wagner already doesn’t shoot great, and if UNC is able to speed them up, this could get ugly early. I wouldn’t consider this a potential March Madness upset.
Power Ranking All 68 March Madness Teams Using KenPom
South Region: 16 Longwood vs. 1 Houston
16 Longwood: The Lancers are no stranger to adversity. They finished the regular season with a losing conference record but came alive in the Big South Tournament and won three straight games to clinch their automatic bid. Longwood relies on a balanced attack that has five players scoring 8 or more points per game. However, they don’t shoot all that well and struggle to defend the 3. They’ll need to play a flawless game to pull off the upset.
1 Houston: The Cougars are the clear favorite, and for good reason. They boast one of the best resumes in the country having won 12 straight games before a blowout loss in the Big 12 tournament finals. Houston is known for its stifling defense, ranked among the top 3 in the nation. They force turnovers, block shots, and make opponents work hard for every point. Offensively, they’re efficient and have a solid three-point shooting attack with their guard trio of LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, and Jamal Shead.
Prediction: No chance Houston will lose this game.
Midwest Region: 16 Grambling vs. 1 Purdue
16 Grambling: Can the Tigers do the unthinkable and give Purdue their second straight March Madness defeat to a 16 seed? Grambling certainly wouldn’t scare them or anyone on paper with their 321st-ranked scoring offense or a defense allowing opponents to shoot over 43% from the field on the year. However, these Tigers have earned their stripes after winning the SWAC regular season and tournament titles. The followed that up with the program’s first-ever NCAA Tournament win in its first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance against Montana St. in the First Four.
1 Purdue: This feels like deja🍰 vu. The Boilermakers are back as a 1 seed after winning the B1G regular season title and face a 16 seed who had to play in the First Four. Unlike last season though, they didn’t take home the B1G Tournament title and have last year’s defeat at the hands of FDU to motivate them. This Purdue team has also added the 3-ball to their repertoire, ending the season with the 2nd highest shooting percentage in the country. Zach Edey gets all of the attention, and rightfully so, but༒ this squad has three other players scoring over 10 points per game as well.
Prediction: As incredible as it would be to see another major March Madness upset, I don’t see it happening here. Last season,🔯 Purdue went up against an FDU team that was top 20 in shot attempts per game, while also averaging the 47th most points per contest as well. Grambling is𓆉 the complete opposite of that team, averaging just 53.9 attempts per game (352nd) and just 67.6 points per game (321st).
The Tigers lack the size to contend with Edey down low. They don’t defend the 3-pointer well, which is something Purdue has become prolific at. Although I don’t think Grambling will pull off another historic March Madness upset, I’ll consider this the most likely one, based on Purdue’s past tournament struggles.
More March Madness upset picks:
15 seed vs. 2 seed | 14 seed vs. 3 seed | 13 seed vs. 4 seed | 12 seed vs. 5 seed
