Overall, I think David Ross is probably an OK big league manager. More development to come? Probably. But my gut reaction to his tenure is that he’s far from a disaster, and he could get better and better.
I think he does the clubhouse and training stuff particularly well – guys seem to be very motivated, engaged, focused, and many are having great individual years – and most analysts will tell you that is the stuff that makes the biggest difference in Wins and Losses by the 🙈end of the season.
I also think he gets more grief for the in-game decision-making than actually matches reality. The decisions are not perfect, though, and I gotta tell you, his reaction to last night’s Drew Smyly start has my blood boiling a little.
To reset, Smyly, who had been struggling with command in his starts before a move to the bullpen, gave up seven runs over 3.2 innings last night on eight hits and three walks. His 23% CSW was quite poor, and he was getting hammered at the plate for a lack of control (setting up hitters counts) and a lack of command in the zone. His 53.3% hard contact rate and 20.0% barrel rate further underscore just how hard he was being hit. It looked, unfortunately, a whole lot like Smyly’s starts before the bullpen sojourn.
As we talked about BEFORE Smyly even took that start, it felt like a mistake to move Smyly from the bullpen (where he was having success) straight back into the rotation (where he had been deeply struggling) on the vague hope that maybe something had clicked in the relief appearances that would be portable to starting. It felt like a mistake not to give that start, for example, to Hayden Wesneski, who is certainly not any more risky of a play, and who at least offers a little more upside and player development opportunity. (Or maybe Jordan Wicks, though a promotion decision like that would ultimately come more from the front office than from Ross, so I wouldn’t put that on him.)
AT A MINIMUM, there should have been a plan in place to have Wesnesk💧i piggyback much more aggressively than letting Smyly hang out there and get blown up for 7 runs after the offense had made a game of it. Even he got tired in the 4th inning.
I did not expect Ross to blast Smyly after the game, and indeed that would be the wrong thing to do. Smyly is out there trying his best, wanting desperately to make it work. But what I also did not expect was Ross to defend the decision to start Smyly, and imply that he’s eager to make the same mistake again next time through the rotation.
“Who takes his spot in the rotation, is the𒐪 question,” Ross said when asked if it was time to consider a more permanent move to the bullpen for Smyly, . “He’s in there because we’re just a little short-handed right now. It’s his first start back; let’s give him a little bit of grace. And I don’t know that we have anybody waiting in line that we feel like is some🍌 dominant force.”
Who takes his spot is not the rhetorical question Ross seems to think it is. Wesneski. Wicks. An opener. Hell, I’d even give Shane Greene a look after his five-inning performance at Iowa last night (more about that later, actually). ANYONE ELSE.
I’m not saying the Cubs aren’t short-handed. They are. The combined impact of Marcus Stroman’s injury, Adrian Sampson falling off a cliff (and getting hurt), Ben Brown getting hurt at the same time as Stroman, and Wesneski not establishing himself against left-handed batters earlier in the year means that the Cubs don’t have a perfect rotation setup right now. I am not arguing that the path for Ross is simple.
But I am ABSOLUTELY arguing that one decision should be: Smyly cannot be given such a long leash as a starter. Either that means he doesn’t make his next start at all, or, if he does, you come into it with a MUCH BETTER plan to cut bait if necessary.
No one is asking for the Cubs to supplant Smyly with “some dominant force,” as if that would be the only possible justification for moving Smyly back to the bullpen. The Cubs just need an option that is at least as good as Smyly has been over the last two months, COMBINED WITH the value of having Smyly available in the bullpen (where he might currently be affirmatively good and useful!).
I left last night’s game confident that Smyly would not take a start the next time through the rotation. Now I’m less sure. And that bothers me, as the Cubs cannot afford to be punting games every five days. Unless there is 100% confidence that Smyly is just one little easily-achievable tweak away from settling down and being a steady back-of-the-rotation type, then I just don’t get it.
Also, for the record, I am aware that veteran players do sometimes rediscover their form between starts. We saw it with Jameson Taillon this year, in fact. Maybe that happens with Smyly if the Cubs give him another start or two. But that feels a lot more like mere “hope” at this point rather than sound strategy.
