Yeah.
There are reasons for it. And the sinking is probably more than I think is justifiable. But I do think it’s important to be clear-eyed about what the Cubs’ farm system is, what it isn’t, how much it can “save” the big league team in the years ahead, and how much ongoing work is ALWAYS needed to stay successful.
OK. So that’s my preemptive response to my own headline up there, and now for the updated farm ranking at ESPN, :
“12. Chicago Cubs — $249 million
Current top prospect: Matt Shaw, 3BPreseason ranking: 2nd, $328 million
What has happened since: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Michael Busch are notable graduates, which explains most of the lost value from their lofty preseason ranking. Cade Horton has stalled a bit this season while Moises Ballesteros and Jefferson Rojas have broken into the Top 100 conversation. Cam Smith and Cole Mathis are collegiate power hitters who headline the Cubs’ draft haul while arrow-up prospects Ty Johnson and Hunter Bigge were dealt to the Rays in the Isaac Paredes trade at the deadline.”
From 2nd to 12th in four months. It’s a massive, massive drop. I’ll offer the context – and, again, I think we’re looking at something more like the 6th/7th/8th best farm system rather than the 12th – but the point is that the Cubs cannot rest on this idea that they have the best farm system in the game, and everything is about to burst forth from there. Good stuff is on the way (watch the Iowa Cubs tonight to see), but there are now significant gaps in the farm system – thanks to some injuries, some steps back, and a noticeable lack of pop-up prospects this year – that are going to have to be addressed.
OK, so why the huge fall? Well, as McDaniel notes, there are some big, obvious things: tons of graduations on guys who’d been relatively high-rankers for ESPN. That’s probably the biggest impact right there. Then you have Cade Horton’s injury that is going to hold up his rise in the minds of a lot of evaluators. You have a little bit of a ding from the Trade Deadline (in both directions, with the Cubs net losing a bit of prospect talent, and then a lot of teams around them in the rankings adding a bunch). And you have a bit of a ding from the draft, where the Cubs’ opportunity to add highly-ranked prospects was much lower than many other teams.
So, again, a big fall from the preseason completely makes sense here. But that doesn’t mean it’s a good thing, or that it doesn’t underscore the work that lies ahead.
To put it another way: the vast majority of the value in this ranking is currently at Triple-A Iowa. What happens when those guys graduate or are traded for big league impact? Yeah. Another stone-sinking update looms, say, late next year. You have to always be adding, always be developing, and always be surprising. It’s how the Dodgers, for example, are still number three on a list like this.
