I’m not a deeply superstitious man, but I will admit to some level of trepidation about continuously calling out the improvements of certain young players for fear that the rug will get pulled out from under them (and me).
But dang it, Miguel Ama✤ya and Pete Crow-Armstrong just keep producing in such a w💯ay that I cannot possibly avoid giving them more praise. And, God help me, getting more excited about their futures.
Last night, Amaya went 4 for 5 with two doubles, while PCA went 3 for 5 with a walk and three stolen bases. But for the 18 runs the team put up as a whole, it would’ve been yet another night of the bottom two hitters in the lineup shining the brightest.
On the season, Amaya has his line up to .243/.300/.373/90 wRC+, just about bordering average production for a catcher. It’s an almost unthinkable climb from where he was less than two months ago, but we all know about the early-July swing changes that instantly set him soaring (.352/.398/.593/177 wRC+, 5.9% BB, 11.9% K over those 31 games).
If the results, alone, don’t inspire confidence that something very real has changed with Miguel Amaya, consider the plate discipline metrics, which stabilize much more quickly. Before the swing change, Amaya was chasing out of the zone at a 33.8% rate. Since the change, it’s down to 28.1%. At pitches in the strike zone, Amaya was swinging just 69.2% of the time. Since the change, that figure is up to 74.0%. Combine the two, and you have a massive difference showing through in Amaya’s swing decisions. In his ability to organize his strike zone. And one thing we know about hitters, almost without exception across all classes and types: the less you swing at pitches out of the zone, and the more you swing at pitches in the zone, the better.
As for PCA, his season line is up to .224/.274/.384/82 wRC+. The precise timing of his swing changes is a little harder to pin down, but I did see it referenced that he really started to feel comfortable in late-July, amid the team’s series in Kansas City. There’s a bit of chicken-or-the-eggery going on there, but going back to July 27 (which is 27 games), PCA is hitting .311/.361/.567/155 wRC+, with a 6.1% BB and 13.1% K.
Once again, the plate discipline metrics tell so much of the story. Before the changes, PCA was swinging outside the strike zone a whopping 43.6% of the time (and boy did it show). He was swinging at strikes just 72.0% of the time. Since he started feeling good on July 27, Pete Crow-Armstrong is chasing just 33.3% of the time, and swinging at pitches in the zone 78.5% of the time. Again, those are just tremendously significant rate movements to take place in season. It’s extremely encouraging.
Now, to be sure, these improvements in plate discipline, alone, don’t explained the dramatic improvement in results, nor do the swing changes, alone, explain the improvements in plate discipline. Reps, exposure, muscle memory, match-ups, and good fortunate are all probably part of the story to some degree. But again, I’m just saying: from what we can see with our eyes and dig out of the data, it sure LOOKS like the two young hitters have made VERY REAL changes to their game for the better.
It gives the Cubs pote✤ntially the best numbers eight and nine hitters in the league.
As for any questions on why Craig Counsell hasn’t moved the duo up in the order, I have to be honest: I wouldn’t mess with it. Maybe these two younger players are finding so much success right now, in part, because they don’t feel any added pressure to produce. Eventually, would you want bats like this higher up in the order? Of course. But for now, for this season, given where everything stands and given how well things are going for them where they are? Just leave it. Don’t mess with their heads right now, especially as they’re continuing to lock in muscle memory for their new swings, and as they’re getting more exposure to different types of big league pitching.
