CUBS PLAYOFF ODDS — Yesterday, the Chicago Cubs completed a crazy-improbable comeback — scoring 11 runs from the seventh inning on — to sweep the Pirates in Pittsburgh and move two games over .500 for the first time since May 25! The win also gave them an impressive 16-8 record in August. And they’re 9-3 over their last twelve games since the sweep in Cleveland. So … surely by now they’ve made up a ton of ground in the Wild Card race, right? Eh….
Cubs Playoff Odds
No. Not so much.
NL Wild Card Race:
- Arizona Diamondbacks: 76-57
- San Diego Padres: 76-59
- Atlanta Braves: 73-60 ——-
- New York Mets: 69-64 (4.0 GB)
- Chicago Cubs: 68-66 (5.5 GB)
- San Francisco Giants: 67-67 (6.5 GB)
- St. Louis Cardinals: 66-67 (7.0 GB)
On the one hand, the Cubs did clear the path a little bit, with only the Mets and Braves now standing between the Cubs and a playoff berth. But the Braves just refuse to lose, so there’s still a 5.5 game deficit to overcome. That suuuuuuuuucks.
And that’s why (3.6%), (6.6%), and (6.7%) all still have the Cubs playoff odds well under a 10% shot. Given the significant lead the Braves have built over the Cubs, I’d say the Cubs need to win at least 20 of their remaining 28 games to get in. That would put the Cubs at 88-74 on the year, and even that would require the Braves to go 14-15 the rest of the way (to say nothing of the Mets). I’m not so sure that’s a good bet.
Remaining Strength of Schedule:
The Cubs (.490) still have a softer remaining schedule than the Mets (.501) or Braves (.497), but not by a wide margin. Plus, the Cubs still have matchups against the Dodgers (on the road), Phillies (on the road), and Yankees (at home) – won’t be easy to go even 5-4 in that stretch, much less anything better than that.
On the flip side, the Cubs do have 13 more games at home against the Pirates, A’s, Nationals, and Reds, plus three more scheduled days off AFTER today’s off-day. Ultimately, it’s easy to imagine the Cubs leap-frogging the Mets, but falling short of the Braves when all is said and done.
