Identifying the Game That Sinks It, Pearson and Homers, Assad and Jams, Leiter, Missaki, and Other Cubs Bullets

Brett Taylor Brett Taylor
Sep 14, 2024
Sep 14, 2024

The oldest kiddo has pneumonia, which absolutely sucks. I remember having it when I was young𝓰er, and i🌠t was a pretty miserable experience.

  • Setting aside the actual “officially eliminated” loss, whenever it happens, we’re not necessarily going to be able to say in foresight which loss was the one that definitely cooked the 2024 Cubs. I tend to think, when we look back in hindsight, however, we’re going to find it was probably more than one, and the defensible range might be quite wide – like, as far back as an exemplary loss back in May that told a story of what was to come, and then something as recent as the blown loss to the Pirates a couple weeks ago that really hammered the already-dwindled playoff hopes.

  • Anyway, that is to say, last night’s loss was really bad, obviously, but I can’t tell you it was THE ONE that ended it all. With the loss, the Cubs went from “almost certainly not making the postseason” to “yup still almost certainly not making the postseason.” If you want to say last night was it for you? Totally fine. No argument here. I think you can kinda throw a dart and be right.

  • It’s not like 2019, when the end was so obvious that you could identify the PITCH that ended it all, even as that Craig Kimbrel pitch was being smacked into the seats by Matt Carpenter. But, for example, I don’t think people will remember this pitch quite as clearly five years on:

  • Nate Pearson’s overall numbers with the Cubs are still excellent, by the way, but his HR/9 is now up to 1.80, exactly matching where it was with the Blue Jays, and just about his career mark of 1.72. For context, the league average this year is 1.14, and the Cubs pitchers you most associate with home run problems are probably Kyle Hendricks and Hayden Wesneski, who are at 1.61. So, yeah, Pearson’s home run rate is really high.

  • On the one hand, home run issues for a late-inning reliever are a particular problem, because you’re so often tasked with pitching in close games. On the other hand, if he’s 20+ point spread between his strikeout rate and walk rate, as he does now with the Cubs, you might be able to stomach it (especially when the walk rate is a microscopic 2.7%). On the other other hand, the list of relievers who have a higher HR rate than Pearson this year is almost exclusively a list of relievers who are having terrible seasons overall. It’s pretty hard to actually be good with a home run rate this high.

  • After the Goodman grand slam, this is what happened, and suddenly I’m starting to reconsider my thoughts on not being able to identify the precise moment the Cubs’ season ended:

  • Javier Assad was solid last night, I thought. Didn’t look his best, but capable, and holding the Rockies to four runs over six innings at Coors Field is a good outcome (believe it or not!).

  • On Assad’s continued ability to get out of jams more frequently than other pitchers, Craig Counsell said (): “There haven’t been many pitchers that have proven that’s a skill. I think Javi has seemingly proved it is a skill for him, because he’s done that very repeatedly this year. It feels like his best pitches have been made at the biggest moments.”

  • Yankees fans aren’t too thrilled about the Mark Leiter Jr. deal:

  • I haven’t been watching the Yankees closely, obviously, so I can’t say for sure what has happened, but I will note what we always said about Leiter: when he has his splitter, he is one of the best relievers you’ll ever see. When he doesn’t have his splitter, he is completely mediocre. And the splitter can come and go. That was the risk in keeping Leiter and just assuming he was definitely going to be great the rest of the way and tendered for 2025 and great again next year. (, I do see some pretty significant changes in the movement, chase, and whiff rate on the splitter since the Trade Deadline. Sorry, Yankees!)

  • Not that things aren’t generally still fine for the Yankees. They even have Aaron Judge off his homer-less drought with a game-changing grand slam against the Red Sox:

  • Earlier this year, the Cubs signed Brazilian-Japanese pitcher Daniel Missaki, a 28-year-old former Mariners prospect who had a VERY unique path through professional baseball aroun꧃d th🏅e world. He hasn’t quite had a breakout in the Cubs’ system, with extreme wildness almost entirely erasing his extreme strikeout rate. He did have his best outing of the year last night, though, and I tentatively think the Cubs are going to try to keep him in the organization for 2025 to see if a little more time to work together could get him on track.

    • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at and on LinkedIn . Br💟ett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

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