Guillotine Leagues Week 3 Best Waiver Wire Strategy

If you’re reading a Guillotine Leagues waiver w🉐ire strategy piece ahead of Wednesday’s FAAB selection, congratulations! You were one of the 16 teams t💝hat passed under the guillotine without getting chopped. Two weeks down, only 16 more to go to a championship.

However, if you’re Guillotine Leagues are a lot like mine, there are suddenly a large number of extremely valuable fantasy football assets on the waiver wire. As we head into the first FAAB run of the season on Wednesday, what’s th🃏e best strategy🉐 for the $1,000 budget this early in the season?

This weekly piece will look at some of the most chopped players across Guillotine Leagues to see how we should bid on them. The full list is at the bottom of the column. If you’re looking for more Guillotine Leagues content, be sure to check out Chop: The Guillotine Leagues Podcast, releasing each week.

Sign up for a s now to see full rules and options for rest of seas꧙on.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (Chopped in 13.3% of Guillotine Leagues)

With the run-heavy game plan that Joe Brady has installed with the Buffalo Bills since the middle of last season, Josh Allen is going to have to score touchdowns with his legs to keep up the pace of a top-two quarterback for fantasy football. Right now Allen is seventh in fantasy points per game, but that’s only because he scored 31.2 points in Week 1 (including two rushing touchdowns). He scored just 9.9 fantasy points in the Week 2 thrashing of Miami.

If you’re a Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, or Matthew Stafford owner who somehow made it through Week 2 still alive, this is your time to pounce with a high big (think $200-$300 if you’re desperate). Presumably, Allen will have enough big games that he won’t show up too many times in a list of the eight most-chopped players. But quarterbacks, as onesie position, are the easiest to replace, so a team with a couple of solid options could place a bid, but don’t blow the bank just yet.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (9.2% Chopped)

With his inaccuracy issues (Richardson is 32nd among quarterbacks in clean pocket completion percentage – 42.9), Richardson is going to have bust days like Sunday where he doesn’t run enough or score a rushing touchdown to make up for the lack of production in the air. His upside is immense, however, and he can be a week-winner any time out.

Knowing that, I am not bidding more than about $75 on Richardson unless I lost my quarterback (like with Tua Tagovailoa) or I am absolutely desperate at the position (maybe there are those who drafted Caleb Williams and Will Levis, for example). There will be better quarterbacks on the waiver wire in weeks to come, and I don’t want to spend all my FAAB on a volatile asset.

Running Backs

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15.4% Chopped)

Through two weeks of the 2024 season, Rachaad White is one of the most inefficient rushers in the league, despite having some of the most work. He is 12th in snap share and fifth in weighted opportunities, but has just 49 total rushing yards and ranks 40th in yards per touch this season (4.0 yards). In Week 2, he rushed 15 times for just 31 yards. His 75 receiving yards saved his day somewhat, but after two disappointing weeks, it’s no wonder he has found himself on the chopping block in Guillotine Leagues.

I love the workload, but hate the results. This early in the season, I might throw a $50 bid on Rachaad White to see if I get him. That likely won’t be enough as someone will bid on name value, but I don’t want White as someone I’m counting on to save a roster that’s in trouble. Money can be better spent elsewhere in Guillotine Leagues.

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (14.1% Chopped)

For the second week in a row, and for obvious reasons, Christian McCaffrey finds himself as one of the most chopped players in Guillotine Leagues. Week 1 was the Monday Night Football debacle, but this week, those who spent big bucks on him are likely chopped or close to it. In one of my leagues, a manager spent more than $500 on CMC this week, just to get eliminated because he couldn’t use his services.

With McCaffrey now out for at least four weeks and perhaps longer, it’s getting harder to justify spending more than $25 or so on him. In Guillotine Leagues we need to be focused on the two or three weeks right in front of us, and CMC is not going to be available in those weeks. I won’t be bidding on him this week, and no one should go overboard here.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (14.5% Chopped)

Tyreek Hill, the most chopped wide receiver in Guillotine Leagues this🃏 week, might be the most interesting player to watch on waivers. He is an undeniable, game-changing talent, but now gets Skylar Thompson or Tyler Huntley at quarterback. Mike McDaniel might just choose to go run-heavy like the Green Bay Packers did with Malik Willis this week. The Dolphins will have to find a way to get the ball in the hands of their best playmaker somehow, but his situation has undoubtedly worsened.

I do believe ജMcDaniel will get the ball to Hill plenty. There might not be many 80-yard touchdowns anymore, but they can do plenty of sweeps and slants and posts for Hill. In Guillotine Leagues this week, I have no🍬 problem putting out a $100 bid for Hill. No matter who you have, he is going to be better than the players on your roster right now.

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles (14.3% Chopped)

A.J. Brown suffering a hamstring injury in practice on Friday was a gut punch to the Guillotine Leagues managers who rostered him. At least he was ruled out before the Sunday games began so some kind of replacement could be acquired, but it didn’t help 14% of teams who likely drafted Brown as their first round pick.

He is likely out another game, and there are rumblings the Eagles might just hold him out through the Week 5 bye. But if they lose again in Week 3 after the crushing loss to Atlanta on Monday, his recovery might have to be fast-tracked to make sure this season doesn’t go off the rails. Since it’s likely Week 4 or Week 6 when we see Brown again, I can endorse an aggressive bid over $150 to assure the services of one of the game’s great wideouts.

Tank Dell, Houston Texans (12.4% Chopped)

Just 11 targets and four receptions through two games is not what Tank Dell’s managers signed up for in this high-octane Houston offense. He does not have a receiving touchdown and is 56th in target share this season (16.9%). This is certainly the result of Stefon Diggs arriving in town and the emergence of Nico Collins as a legitimate contender for the overall WR1 in fantasy.

Last season before he was hurt, Tank Dell’s massive games came in bunches. C.J. Stroud is too good, and Tank Dell is too fast to not connect for some of those long touchdowns very soon. The defensive matchups for Houston get easier in the weeks to come as well, so a Guillotine Leagues bid of $50-$75 is not outrageous here depending on your team needs.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (16.5% Chopped)

Travis Kelce is an interesting case study this week. On one hand, his 🅷usage is great. He is fourth in snap share, seventh in routes, 11th in air yards share, and 13th in target share. On the other hand, he has been awful so far in the box scores. His 4.0 fantasy points per game are 30th among tight ends through two weeks.

I’m going to choose to believe in the usage and the track record here. With Isiah Pacheco going down, the Chiefs are likely to turn to the pass more, which means Kelce could be the beneficiary. Hollywood Brown is out for the year so that’s one less mouth to feed as well. In Guillotine Leagues this week, I can see a bid of $100 for Kelce.

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (9.0% Chopped)

Evan Engram found himself on almost 10% of chopped rosters in Week 2 thanks to a pre-game injury that prevented him from playing. That means most of his managers took a zero, which led to his inclusion on this list. There is hope that Engram will miss just one or two games with this setback, but now we have to be cautious anytime we rely o🐎n Engram for a ꧂precious roster spot.

Considering it’s likely not a serious injury for Engram, he seems like he should fall in the $25-$45 bid range this week in Guillotine Leagues. Someone will hate how their tight ends have performed and try to overbid, so if you absolutely need to get him, be prepared to go up to around $125 or so.

Guillotine Leagues Week 2 Top 50 Chopped List

Below are the 50 players after Week 2.

1. KC TE Travis Kelce: 16.5%
2. TB RB Rachaad White: 15.4%
3. MIA WR Tyreek Hill: 14.5%
4. PHI WR A.J. Brown: 14.3%
5. SF RB Christian McCaffrey: 14.1%
6. DET TE Sam LaPorta: 13.9%
7. BUF QB Josh Allen: 13.3%
8. SEA RB Kenneth Walker: 12.8%
9. HOU WR Tank Dell: 12.4%
10. HOU RB Joe Mixon: 12.3%
11. JAC WR Christian Kirk: 12.2%
12. MIA RB Raheem Mostert: 12.1%
13. LAR WR Puka Nacua: 11.6%
14. BUF WR Keon Coleman: 11.6%
15. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa: 11.1%
16. CIN WR Ja’Marr Chase: 11.1%
17. HOU WR Stefon Diggs: 10.7%
18. TB WR Mike Evans: 10.6%
19. CHI WR Keenan Allen: 10.4%
20. PIT WR George Pickens: 10.2%
21. IND WR Michael Pittman: 10.2%
22. KC WR Xavier Worthy: 10.1%
23. MIA WR Jaylen Waddle: 9.7%
24. DAL RB Ezekiel Elliott: 9.6%
25. CIN RB Zack Moss: 9.6%
26. GB WR Jayden Reed: 9.4%
27. IND QB Anthony Richardson: 9.2%
28. SF WR Brandon Aiyuk: 9.2%
29. KC QB Patrick Mahomes: 9.2%
30. LV RB Zamir White: 9.1%
31. CLE WR Amari Cooper: 9.0%
32. JAC TE Evan Engram: 9.0%
33. LAC WR Ladd McConkey: 8.8%
34. CIN RB Chase Brown: 8.7%
35. MIN RB Aaron Jones: 8.7%
36. CIN WR Tee Higgins: 8.4%
37. CHI RB D’Andre Swift: 8.3%
38. BUF WR Curtis Samuel: 8.3%
39. ATL TE Kyle Pitts: 8.2%
40. PIT RB Jaylen Warren: 8.2%
41. LAR WR Cooper Kupp: 8.2%
42. GB WR Christian Watson: 8.1%
43. SEA WR Tyler Lockett: 8.0%
44. MIN WR Jordan Addison: 7.9%
45. TEN RB Tyjae Spears: 7.9%
46. LAR QB Matthew Stafford: 7.9%
47. CAR WR Adam Thielen: 7.7%