3M Open Sleeper Picks – We have just two events left before the FedEx Cup Playoffs, with the Olympics coming up next week. Although the field might not be as strong after the links swing, there are still many betting opportunities this week. The playoff field has grown, with 125 players narrowing down to 70 last season, putting more players on the bubble. With only the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship left on the schedule, the chances to improve your position or secure your spot are decreasing. This change led to a lot of excitement last season, and I’m hoping for more of the same starting this week.
This week’s field is stronger as the Tour returns to the United States for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota. TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71, 7,431-yard course with bentgrass fairways and greens, native prairie grasses, and 13 water hazards that challenge golfers off the tee. Interestingly, shots that land in the water often lead to high scores. TPC Twin Cities had the sixth most penalty strokes per round on the Tour last season and had the most “water balls” out of any other course.
This week, driving accuracy, distance from the edge of the fairway, and Bogey Avoidance are more important than at most other “easy scoring” courses. There will still be plenty of birdie opportunities and winning scores in the upper teens or higher. The greens are also typically soft and receptive, making it a test of who can keep their ball dry off the tee, followed by a ball striking and putting contest.
TPC Twin Cities is one of the top-10 courses on Tour for strokes gained off the tee. It boasts the 16th widest fairways on Tour, averaging 35 yards, providing substantial landing areas. Finding the water indicates poor ball striking, as water comes into play on nine of the 14 drives off the tee. Hitting fairways is crucial this week due to the prevalence of water hazards. Some holes require a forced layup due to bunkers pinching into the landing zone or the risk of hitting over water. In summary, accuracy off the tee is key, with 31 of the top 36 players on last year’s leaderboard gaining strokes through accuracy.
The course features wide fairways, and the thick rough has not been a significant obstacle in preventing golfers from reaching the greens.𒁃 With a greens in regulation (GIR) rate of𒆙 71%, players who keep their ball in play should find it relatively easy to create birdie opportunities.
The TPC Twin Cities’ greens are made of bentgrass and have a slightly above-average speed, measuring 12.5 on the stimpmeter. These greens are fairly flat and are highly praised by players for their smooth and consistent roll.
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3M Open Sleeper Picks
Austin Eckroat
Austin Eckroat’s spring form hasn’t fully carried over to the summer, but I think we’re close to seeing him emerge again down the stretch. He’s an excellent fit for TPC Twin Cities. His recent ball-striking form is elite, and he’s going to keep the ball in play off the tee. Over the past six months, Eckroat ranks sixth in average distance from the edge of the fairway, and he ranks eighth in that metric over the past three years when the water danger risk is high.
Eckroat has only gained strokes putting in four of his 13 events dating back to his win at PGA National back in early March, but h𒀰e rates out as the 12th-best bentgrass putter in this field over the past 18 months. These odds at 90/1 are just too long for a player of his caliber in this field.
To Win: +9000
Carson Young
It seems to be all or nothing for Carson Young, who mixes in top-20s at a decent clip when he’s not missing the cut. Similar to Ben Griffin, Young had strong showings at TPC Deere Run (T5) and Canada (T14) but has spiked ball-striking weeks mixed in at other stops as well.
Young finished 11th in this week, ahead of both Austin Eckroat (12th) and Ben Griffin (15th), despite being buried on the odds board. His current ball-striking form has been excellent, and when he’s dialed in, he is gaining off the tee and on approach equally. He’s a great look down the board for a strong finish if you don’t want to take the plunge at 175/1 to win.
To Win: +17500
