As we eagerly anticipate the clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58, sportsbooks have wasted no time in rolling out a variety of player props for the big game. Here are some intriguing Supꦫer Bowl over/under prop bets that caught our eye, providing a glimpse into the potential player🍨 narratives that could unfold on the grand stage.
Isiah Pacheco’s Longest Reception Prop: Going Under 10.5 Yards
One early prop that stands out is the line set for Isiah Pacheco’s longest reception, currently at 10.5 yards on BetMGM. Our play here leans towards꧙ the under, backed by a strong tren💟d. Pacheco has registered just six receptions of 11 yards or longer, including the postseason.
From the ‘ perspective, there’s no apparent reason to anticipate an uptick in Pacheco’s usage, considering the overall health of the team. To consider betting the over, we would need to see a compelling trend in the 49ers’ defense.
However, the ‘ pass defense against running backs hovers around the league average by various metrics. Opponents target running backs against San Francisco 19.6% of the time, closely aligned with the league average of 18.6%. TruMedia data reveals that the 49ers allow 10 or more yards to running backs on 25% of receptions, slightly above the league average of 24%.
Given these statistics, there’s no compelling reason to expect a breakout performance from Pacheco in terms of receiving yards.
Christian McCaffrey’s Longest Rush Prop: Over 17.5 Yards
In a matchup against a favorable Chiefs run defense, the over on Christian McCaffrey’s longest rush prop at 17.5 yards seems like a tempting play. McCaffrey has surpassed this number in 11 of his 18 games this year, showcasing a strong trend towards the over.
The Kansas City defense further bolsters our confidence in McCaffrey’s potential. The Chiefs contact running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 37% of attempts, which is the second-lowest rate in the league according to TruMedia.
When McCaffrey is allowed to cross the line of sc﷽rimmage without immediate contact, he boasts an impressive average of 8.1 yards per attempt. Additionally, he gains at least 15 yards on 12% of his carries, ranking third-highest in the NFL.
Considering these factors, the over on McCaffrey’s longest rush prop appears to align with both his historical performance and the favorable matchup against the Chiefs.
Brock Purdy’s Longest Rush Prop: Under 8.5 Yards
The line for Brock Purdy’s longest rush, set at 8.5 yards on BetMGM, appears to be influenced by the NFC Championship Game. Our inclination here is to take the under on Purdy’s longest rush.
While Purdy has proven to be an effective runner when he decides to scramble, averaging 9.1 yards per scramble thi﷽s year (including playoffs), he tends to keep his rushing attempts relatively low. Purdy averages just 1.2 scrambles per game and takes off running on only 3.9% of his dropbacks, below the league average of 5.0%.
Despite his efficiency on the ground, Purdy has recorded a rush of nine yards or longer in only six of his 18 games this season. Therefore, the under on Purdy’s longest rush prop seems like a prudent play, factoring in his limited rushing attempts and the specific circumstances influencing the current line.
In conclusion, these early proඣp bets provide a glimpse into the potential player storylines that could unfold during Supe🎃r Bowl 58. As we inch closer to the big game, keep an eye on these props and others that may emerge, offering unique angles for fans and bettors alike to engage with the action on the field.
