Michigan vs. Fresno State Prediction: Picks, Live Odds and Moneyline – August 31, 2024

Aug 28, 2024

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The Fresno State Bulldogs (0-0) will look to upset the No. 9 Michigan Wolverines (0-0) on Saturday, August 31, 2024 at Michigan Stadium. The Wolverines are without a doubt the favorites in this one, with the line posted aꦆt 21 points. The over/under in this contest is 46.5 points.

Michigan vs. Fresno State Favorite, Moneyline, Total

Spread favorite: Wolverines (-21)

Moneyline: Wolverines (-2778), Bulldogs (+1300)

Total: 46.5 points

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How to Watch Michigan vs. Fresno State

When: Saturday, August 31, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Location: Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan

TV: NBC

Live Stream:

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Michigan 2023 Stats & Rankings

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	213.7 (3205)	82
Rush yards	169.1 (2536)	54
Points scored	35.9 (538)	8
Pass yards against	157.0 (2355)	2
Rush yards against	90.0 (1350)	4
Points allowed	10.4 (156)	1

Michigan 2023 Betting Info

The Wolverines went 9-5-1 ATS last season.

Michigan was favored by 21 points or more seven times last season, and covered the spread in three of those matchups.

The Wolverines and their opponents combined to go over the point total eight out of 15 times last season.

The average point total in Wolverines games last year was 1.3 more points than the total of 46.5 in this matchup.

Michigan Home/Away Splits (2023)

	Overall	Home	Away
Point Total AVG	47.8	50.4	43.9
Implied Total AVG	34.7	37.2	30.8
ATS Record	9-5-1	4-4-1	5-1-0
Over/Under Record	8-7-0	4-5-0	4-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record	15-0	9-0	6-0
Moneyline Underdog Record	0-0	0-0	0-0

Michigan’s Offense vs. Fresno State’s Defense (2023)

The Wolverines averaged 213.7 passing yards per game last season (82nd in the FBS). They face the Bulldogs’ defense which was ranked 34th, allowing 204.7 yards per game through the air.

Michigan’s red-zone percentage was 89.4% a year ago (23rd in the FBS), while Fresno State allowed a score on 82.5% of its opponents’ red-zone trips (66th in college football).

The Wolverines’ running game was 54th in the FBS last year (169.1 yards per game). The Bulldogs gave up 166.2 rushing yards per game (95th).

Michigan was 40th in the FBS in third-down percentage last year (42.8%) and will be facing the 77th-ranked Fresno State defense in that category from a season ago (39.6%).

Fresno State 2023 Stats & Rankings

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	282.2 (3669)	21
Rush yards	105.5 (1372)	117
Points scored	30.5 (396)	47
Pass yards against	204.7 (2661)	34
Rush yards against	166.2 (2160)	95
Points allowed	23.5 (305)	48

Fresno State 2023 Betting Info

The Bulldogs produced a 5-7-0 record against the spread last season.

Michigan covered the spread three times last season (3-4 ATS) when playing as at least 21-point favorites.

Last season, six of the Bulldogs’ 12 games went over the point total.

The average point total in Wolverines games last year was 1.3 more points than the total of 46.5 in this matchup.

Fresno State Home/Away Splits (2023)

	Overall	Home	Away
Point Total AVG	51.0	53.0	48.9
Implied Total AVG	30.3	34.0	26.7
ATS Record	5-7-0	3-3-0	2-4-0
Over/Under Record	6-5-1	2-4-0	4-1-1
Moneyline Favorite Record	6-3	4-1	2-2
Moneyline Underdog Record	2-1	1-0	1-1

Fresno State’s Offense vs. Michigan’s Defense (2023)

The matchups don’t favor the Bulldogs’ offense in this game, as they had the No. 117 rushing attack in the FBS last season (105.5 yards per game), and will be facing the No. 4 defense in that category. The Wolverines allowed 90.0 yards per game on the ground.

Fresno State ranked 103rd in the FBS averaging 3.7 yards per carry last year. Michigan allowed 3.0 per rushing attempt (sixth in college football).

The Bulldogs were 88th-ranked in college football in sacks allowed last season (30), and are playing the team ranked 10th in bringing down opposing quarterbacks, the Wolverines (39.0).

Fresno State’s offense averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt last season (77th in the FBS). Michigan’s defense allowed 5.7 yards per passing play (fifth in college football).

Michigan vs. Fresno State Prediction and Pick

Our prediction for Michigan vs. Fresno State sees the Wolverines (-2778 on the moneyline) as the pick to win. Based on our analysis of the historical stats for this 𝔉matchup, we pick the over at 46.5 points.

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